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$292.18K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.
Prediction markets currently give state Senator Mallory McMorrow about a 3 in 5 chance of becoming the Democratic nominee for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat in 2026. With odds around 61%, traders see her as the most likely candidate in a field that is still forming. This means that while she is considered the frontrunner, the market still sees a significant chance, roughly 40%, that another Democrat will win the nomination.
McMorrow’s position stems from a few clear factors. First, she gained national attention in 2022 for a powerful speech defending LGBTQ+ rights against a Republican colleague’s accusations, which built her profile as a compelling communicator and fundraiser. Second, she has maintained a strong political operation since her 2018 election and represents a competitive suburban district, a key area for statewide Democratic success in Michigan.
However, the race is not settled. Other potential candidates, like U.S. Representatives Elissa Slotkin or Haley Stevens, have not declared their intentions. Slotkin, who just won a tough Senate race in 2024, is seen as a particularly strong potential competitor if she chooses to run for this next open seat. The current odds reflect McMorrow’s early momentum but also the uncertainty of who else will join the contest.
The most important immediate date is the filing deadline for candidates, which is likely in April 2026. Before that, watch for official announcements from other potential contenders, expected throughout 2025. These declarations will cause the biggest shifts in the market odds. The Michigan Democratic Party convention in August 2026, where the official nominee is formally selected, will be the final deciding event.
Prediction markets have a mixed record on primary elections this far in advance. They are often good at identifying early frontrunners and tracking momentum shifts in real-time as news breaks. However, over a year before the primary, the field is very fluid. Odds can change dramatically when a major new candidate enters. These markets are best read as a snapshot of current informed sentiment, not a final forecast. Their accuracy will improve as the election gets closer and the candidate field becomes fixed.
Prediction markets currently assign a 61% probability that Michigan State Senator Mallory McMorrow will win the Democratic nomination for the 2026 U.S. Senate race. This price, translating to roughly a 3 in 5 chance, indicates she is the clear frontrunner in a field of potential candidates. However, the odds also reflect significant uncertainty nearly two years before the primary. The combined trading volume of $290,000 across platforms shows serious investor interest but is not yet at the level seen in imminent, high-profile elections.
McMorrow’s high probability stems from her established national profile and fundraising prowess. She gained prominence in 2022 with a viral speech defending LGBTQ+ rights, which fueled a substantial national donor network. This financial advantage is critical for a statewide Senate primary. Furthermore, the potential for an open seat, should Senator Gary Peters retire, creates a vacuum that a prepared candidate like McMorrow could fill. Her positioning as a progressive with a proven ability to mobilize online support makes her an early favorite among the Democratic base.
The primary is not until August 2026, leaving ample time for the political landscape to shift. A key risk to McMorrow’s frontrunner status is the potential entry of a high-profile challenger. Figures like U.S. Representative Elissa Slotkin or Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson could enter the race, instantly reshaping the field and splitting establishment support. Another major factor is Senator Peters’ decision on whether to seek re-election, expected by late 2024 or early 2025. If he runs again, this market would resolve to "No" for all candidates, causing a total price collapse. Early polling and endorsements in 2025 will be the next tangible catalysts for major price movement.
The event is listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with prices generally aligned around the 61% level. Minor, fleeting discrepancies sometimes occur due to differing user bases and liquidity pools. Polymarket typically sees higher volume for political events, but Kalshi’s regulatory status attracts a different set of traders. The absence of a sustained, wide price gap suggests the current consensus on McMorrow’s chances is stable and not an obvious arbitrage opportunity. Traders should monitor both platforms for liquidity, as larger orders can be executed with less slippage where volume is highest.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on who will secure the Democratic nomination for Michigan's Class II U.S. Senate seat in the 2026 election. The seat is currently held by Democratic Senator Gary Peters, who was first elected in 2014 and won re-election in 2020. His term expires on January 3, 2027. The market resolves to 'Yes' for a specific individual if that person wins the Democratic Party's nomination to contest the general election. The nomination process will involve a Democratic primary election, likely held in August 2026, where registered Democratic voters in Michigan will choose their candidate. Interest in this market stems from the seat's importance in the national balance of power in the Senate, Michigan's status as a critical swing state, and the early speculation about potential successors to Senator Peters, who will be 68 years old in 2026 and has not publicly announced his intentions. Political observers are watching for signs from potential candidates, fundraising activity, and early polling to gauge the direction of the Democratic field. The outcome will signal the party's strategic direction in a key industrial state.
Michigan's Class II Senate seat has a competitive modern history. Before Gary Peters' election in 2014, the seat was held for 18 years by Democrat Carl Levin, who retired. Peters' initial victory in 2014, a Republican wave year, was narrow; he defeated Republican Terri Lynn Land by 13 points, but that margin was closer than most expected. His 2020 re-election against John James was the most expensive Senate race in Michigan history, with total spending exceeding $200 million. Peters won by just over 92,000 votes out of more than 5.4 million cast, demonstrating the seat's vulnerability. Historically, open Senate seats in Michigan trigger competitive primaries. The last open Democratic primary for this seat was in 1978, when Carl Levin defeated several opponents including Congressman Bob Carr. The 2026 cycle could see a similar multi-candidate contest if Peters retires. Michigan's political landscape has shifted significantly since 2016, when Donald Trump narrowly won the state. Democrats have since regained dominance in statewide elections, winning the governorship, both Senate seats, and the presidential vote in 2020.
The Democratic nominee for this Senate seat will help determine control of the U.S. Senate starting in 2027. The Senate is often closely divided, and Michigan is one of a handful of states where competitive races can flip the chamber's majority. The outcome influences national policy on issues from climate and healthcare to judicial confirmations. For Michigan, the election matters because the seniority and effectiveness of its senators directly impact federal funding for the state's auto industry, Great Lakes protection, and infrastructure projects. The primary itself will reveal ideological and demographic tensions within the Michigan Democratic coalition, testing the strength of progressive activists against more moderate, electability-focused factions. The candidate who emerges will set the tone for Democratic campaigning in a state with a large union presence and significant rural and suburban divides.
As of early 2025, Senator Gary Peters has not announced whether he will seek a third term in 2026. He has stated he will make a decision in due time. No major Democratic figures have publicly declared their candidacy, as doing so before an incumbent's decision is considered poor form. However, behind-the-scenes fundraising and organizational efforts by potential candidates are likely underway. The Michigan Democratic Party is focused on the 2024 election aftermath and has not begun formal processes for the 2026 Senate race. Political analysts are monitoring Peters' fundraising reports in early 2025 for clues about his intentions; a lack of aggressive fundraising could signal retirement.
The primary election is tentatively scheduled for August 4, 2026. This date is set by Michigan state law, though it could be subject to minor adjustment. The filing deadline for candidates will be in April 2026.
Yes, there are no term limits for U.S. Senators. Gary Peters is eligible to run for a third six-year term. The decision is entirely his, and he has not yet publicly stated his plans.
Potential Republican candidates include former U.S. Representative Peter Meijer, businessman and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon, and 2020/2024 Senate candidate John James. The Republican field will depend heavily on whether the seat is open.
The nominee is chosen by Democratic voters in a statewide primary election. The candidate who receives the most votes wins the nomination, even if it is not a majority. There is no party-run convention or caucus system for this office.
Senate seats are divided into three classes for election scheduling. Class II seats are those up for election in years ending in 0, 2, 4, 6, and 8. Michigan's other seat, held by Debbie Stabenow (until 2025) and her successor, is Class I.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results fr
If Mallory McMorrow wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Mallory McMorrow wins the party's nomination.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results fr
If Haley Stevens wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Haley Stevens wins the party's nomination.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results fr
If Abdul El-Sayed wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Abdul El-Sayed wins the party's nomination.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results fr
If Rashida Tlaib wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Rashida Tlaib wins the party's nomination.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results fr
If Matt Sahr wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Matt Sahr wins the party's nomination.
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