What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Right now, traders on prediction markets give Anthony DiLorenzo roughly a 1 in 3 chance of becoming the Republican nominee for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District. At 29%, the market views his nomination as possible but not the most likely outcome. The total amount wagered here is modest, about $36,000, which suggests this is a race with a smaller, more specialized following compared to high-profile national contests. The collective intelligence is essentially saying the field is still open.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

The current odds reflect a few basic realities of this primary. First, the election is not until September 2026, which is still over five months away. In political prediction markets, this is a very long time. A lot can change as candidates campaign, drop out, or new ones enter the race. Second, NH-01 is a competitive "swing" district that has flipped between parties multiple times in recent elections. This often leads to contentious primaries where the party tries to balance a candidate who can win the general election against one who appeals most to the primary base. Third, while Anthony DiLorenzo may be a known figure, the low probability indicates traders don't see him as a clear frontrunner with locked-up support. Historical context matters here, too. The incumbent, Democrat Chris Pappas, has held the seat since 2019, so Republicans are highly motivated to pick a strong challenger.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The main event is the primary election itself on September 8, 2026. However, the market will likely see the most movement well before that. Key moments to watch include the official filing deadline for candidates, which typically occurs in June. If a well-known local figure or a candidate with significant national backing enters the race, the odds could shift dramatically. Also, watch for endorsements from major state Republican groups or influential figures like Governor Chris Sununu. Any credible polling data released over the summer will be a major signal for traders. The market resolves by November 3, 2026, but for all practical purposes, the picture will be clear on primary night.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

For U.S. House primaries this far out, prediction markets are often more of a snapshot of current name recognition and rumor than a firm forecast. They are generally decent at aggregating available information closer to the election date. For a niche market like this with lower trading volume, the prices can be more sensitive to small bits of news or a few large bets. While markets have a solid track record in high-profile elections, their accuracy for individual congressional primaries, especially ones many months away, comes with more uncertainty. The main value here is watching how the probability changes as real-world events unfold, which can tell you what insiders and politically engaged observers are thinking as the race develops.