GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

When will the FY2027 NDAA become law?

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When will the FY2027 NDAA become law?

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Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Feb 1, 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Feb 1, 2027?	Kalshi	91%
Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	81%
Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 25, 2026?	Kalshi	76%
Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 15, 2026?	Kalshi	43%
Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	27%
Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Nov 1, 2026?	Kalshi	19%
Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	8%

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legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year If legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year has become law after Issuance and before X 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close conditi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will the FY2027 NDAA become law?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year

If legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year has become law after Issuance and before X 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close conditi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close co"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 80.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Feb 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Nov 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 25, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 75.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 15, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

When will the FY2027 NDAA become law?

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KALSHI

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Feb 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.5¢No 9.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Feb 1, 2027?

If legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year has become law after Issuance and before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close co

KALSHI

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 80.5¢No 19.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Jan 1, 2027?

If legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close co

KALSHI

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 25, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 75.5¢No 24.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 25, 2026?

If legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year has become law after Issuance and before Dec 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close c

KALSHI

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 15, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 43.0¢No 57.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 15, 2026?

If legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year has become law after Issuance and before Dec 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close c

KALSHI

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 26.5¢No 73.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 1, 2026?

If legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year has become law after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close co

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Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Feb 1, 2027?

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Events (1)

When will the FY2027 NDAA become law?

Markets (7)

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Feb 1, 2027?

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Feb 1, 2027?

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 25, 2026?

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 25, 2026?

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 15, 2026?

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 15, 2026?

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 1, 2026?

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 1, 2026?

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Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Feb 1, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will the FY2027 NDAA become law?

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Feb 1, 2027?

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Feb 1, 2027?

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 25, 2026?

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 25, 2026?

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 15, 2026?

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 15, 2026?

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 1, 2026?

Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 1, 2026?

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