Idaho Senate Election: Turnout
PM $15.3K
1
8
Idaho Senate Election: Turnout
PM $15.3K
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 600K-640K at 35%.
Polymarket
- 600K-640K35%
- 640K-680K22.5%
- 720K+18.8%
- 680K-720K18.5%
- 520K-560K6.7%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $15.3K
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket event asks how many valid votes will be cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho [1]. The rules state that invalidated or blank votes are not included [1]. Each listed contract is a bracket of that total. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher range bracket [1]. If the results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket [1]. That date is a term in the contract rules, not an announced date for certification or results.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these markets at 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-17T07:03:59.278Z [1]. These are past snapshot times, so the prices shown are not necessarily current. All eight contracts list the same end time, 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1].
The Yes prices range from 0.026 for fewer than 480,000 votes to 0.305 for 600,000 to 640,000 votes [1]. The 600,000 to 640,000 bracket has the highest Yes price in the snapshot, followed by 640,000 to 680,000 at 0.23 [1]. The Yes prices across all eight brackets sum to about 1.08, so they should not be read as a complete probability distribution. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The supplied evidence does not include volume for these contracts, so it cannot show liquidity or how many traders are involved.
What remains uncertain
The coverage records all eight saved markets for this event as included, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The sample warning notes that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. Because only one provider's event is shown, the brackets should not be compared with or combined with listings on other platforms, which may use different wording, bracket ranges, or close times.
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, and it contains no recent news or information about past forecasting accuracy. Resolution depends on official certified results, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. Readers should check the current contract status and rules before relying on these figures.
References
- Polymarket: Idaho Senate Election: Turnout. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract is a turnout market tied to the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho. Its title asks whether total votes cast in that race will fall into a given range. Midterm elections in the United States are general elections held near the midpoint of a president's four-year term, on Election Day, the first Tuesday in November. Federal offices up for election in these years include all 435 House seats and 33 or 34 of the 100 Senate seats [2]. The market is organized as a set of vote-count brackets rather than a single yes or no question about a candidate. The saved event includes eight brackets, running from less than 480,000 votes up to 720,000 or more, with intermediate ranges of 40,000 votes between them. Each bracket is its own contract with a Yes and a No side. Traders are therefore pricing whether the eventual count lands in a particular band, not who wins the seat [1]. The contract's resolution source is the official result of the 2026 Idaho Senate race as published by the state electoral authority that certifies the election. The rules allow an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting to be used as well [1]. The listed end time for these contracts is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. That date is the contract's closing time, not a statement of when the election or its results will be finalized [1].
Historical Context
Idaho has held Senate elections in past midterm and general cycles, and the saved sources include a record of one of them. The 2008 United States Senate election in Idaho was held on November 4, 2008. Republican lieutenant governor Jim Risch won his first term, defeating Democratic former congressman Larry LaRocco and independent perennial candidate Rex Rammell. Risch succeeded Republican incumbent Larry Craig, who did not seek a fourth term [3]. This background describes the 2008 race only. The supplied sources do not provide turnout figures for that election or any information about the 2026 race's candidates, so they cannot be used to compare the two contests' vote totals.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho. Under the rules, all votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options are included. Invalidated or blank votes are excluded. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total is used [1]. Because the count is defined by these categories, a bracket's outcome depends on how the state reports and certifies its totals, not on the margin between candidates. The rules also set tie-breaking and timing conventions that shape how a result maps to a bracket. If the reported value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher range. If the results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range [1]. A reader should therefore check the bracket definitions and the resolution rules directly rather than assuming that a count near a boundary resolves in an intuitive direction.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does this contract actually measure?
It measures the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho, as certified by the state electoral authority. Invalidated or blank votes are not counted [1].
What happens if the count falls exactly on a bracket boundary?
The market resolves to the higher range bracket when the reported value falls exactly between two brackets [1].
What happens if official results are not known by the deadline?
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket [1].
Does this market predict who wins the Idaho Senate seat?
No. The resolution rules depend only on the total valid vote count in the race, so the contract does not turn on which candidate wins [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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