Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T09:00:05.996Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event covers the margin of victory in the 2026 Idaho Senate election. The margin is the absolute difference between the valid-vote percentages of the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by all valid votes cast [1]. "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to the parties' nominees, and independent candidates do not count as either option [1]. Wording differs across the markets. Some ask about a bracket, such as a Republican win by 15% to 20%, while others ask whether a party or an independent candidate will win [1]. A value falling exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher bracket, and if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That date is a resolution rule, not an announced event date.

Reading the snapshot

The markets were observed at 2026-10-17T09:00:05.996Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-17T09:58:58.067Z [1]. These are past snapshot times, not live quotes. All listed contracts close at 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, while the source describes the election as "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. The sample includes all 11 saved markets for this event and is not flagged as partial [1]. The highest Yes prices are a Republican win by 15% to 20% at 0.275, a Republican win by 10% to 15% at 0.19, and a Republican win by 25% to 30% at 0.095 [1]. The Democratic win contract shows 0.0535, and the independent contract shows 0.043 [1].

These prices are separate contracts with different wording. They do not form one complete probability distribution, and they should not be averaged or combined across platforms. Prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

What remains uncertain

The source states that the sample does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1]. Lower-priced brackets therefore should not be read as lower-probability outcomes in any broader sense, and the evidence gives no reason for any price level. The supplied fields do not include volume or trader counts, so this snapshot says nothing about market depth. If a recount begins before the vote is official, the market remains open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1]. Check the provider for current prices before relying on any figure above.

References

1. Polymarket: Idaho Senate Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T09:00:05.996Z.