This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

MLB: NL Manager of the Year

Name: MLB: NL Manager of the Year
End: 2026-12-19T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$15.83K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

MLB: NL Manager of the Year

Vol

$15.83K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $15.83K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $15.83K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will Walt Weiss win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Walt Weiss win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Poly	27%
Will Don Kelly win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Poly	20%
Will Terry Francona win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Poly	13%
Will Dave Roberts win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Poly	10%
Will Craig Stammen win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Poly	7%
Will Carlos Mendoza win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Poly	5%
Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Poly	5%
Will Torey Lovullo win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Poly	5%
Will Craig Counsell win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Poly	4%
Will Blake Butera win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Poly	4%
Will Clayton McCullough win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Poly	3%
Will Oliver Marmol win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Poly	3%
Will Warren Schaeffer win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Poly	3%
Will Rob Thomson win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Poly	3%
Will Tony Vitello win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

27%

Top Probability

$15.83K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 National League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, August 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** MLB: NL Manager of the Year
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 19, 2026 (128 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 National League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 National League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $15.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.91)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Walt Weiss win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Terry Francona win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 19, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Clayton McCullough win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Carlos Mendoza win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 19, 2026): Vol $10.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Don Kelly win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 19, 2026): Vol $38
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Dave Roberts win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Torey Lovullo win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Craig Counsell win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Warren Schaeffer win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 19, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Rob Thomson win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Craig Stammen win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Blake Butera win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Tony Vitello win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Oliver Marmol win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETSports