$39.06K
1
5
$39.06K
1
5
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
More markets for the Scottish Cup game, scheduled for February 4 at 2:45 PM ET.
Prediction markets give Dundee FC and Motherwell FC a roughly 2 in 3 chance (64%) of combining to score at least two total goals in their Scottish Cup match. This means traders collectively believe a higher-scoring game is more likely than a low-scoring one. The market shows moderate confidence, but it's not an overwhelming consensus.
Two main factors support the forecast for multiple goals. First, recent history between these teams suggests open play. In their last five meetings across all competitions, four have finished with two or more total goals. Second, the nature of the Scottish Cup, a single-elimination knockout tournament, can encourage attacking football. Teams are often less cautious in cup ties compared to league games, as a draw leads to a replay rather than elimination. This can reduce defensive, risk-averse tactics.
The key event is the match itself, scheduled for February 4 at 2:45 PM ET. The only other factor that could shift predictions before kickoff is an official team sheet announcement, typically released about one hour before the game. Significant last-minute injuries to key attacking players could potentially lower the expected goal total.
Prediction markets are generally reliable for forecasting binary sports outcomes like total goals, as they aggregate many informed opinions. For soccer specifically, markets on goal totals have a solid track record. The main limitation here is the relatively small amount of money wagered (about $39,000), which can sometimes make prices more volatile. However, the 64% probability aligns with both recent historical data and the typical incentives of a cup match, giving it reasonable credibility.
Polymarket traders assign a 64% probability that the Dundee FC versus Motherwell FC Scottish Cup match will feature over 1.5 total goals. This price indicates a clear, though not overwhelming, expectation for at least two goals in the game. With $39,000 in total volume spread thinly across five related markets, liquidity is limited. This can lead to price volatility that may not fully reflect fundamental match analysis.
The market's lean toward the over is likely rooted in the teams' recent defensive records and the tournament context. Motherwell conceded 10 goals in their last 4 league matches, a pattern of vulnerability that bettors are pricing in. The Scottish Cup is a knockout competition, which can encourage more open, attacking play as teams avoid a replay. Historical data from the last five meetings between these sides shows an average of 2.6 goals per game, supporting the market's current direction.
The primary risk to the over 1.5 goals bet is a cautious tactical approach from both managers. A tight, physical cup tie with few clear chances would defy the current odds. Key team news, such as a last-minute injury to a major attacking player, could also shift probabilities rapidly in these low-liquidity markets. Weather conditions at Dens Park, like heavy rain or wind, could suppress scoring and make the under a more attractive position.
This event is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The absence of a comparable market on Kalshi eliminates direct arbitrage opportunities and means the 64% price is the sole consensus from prediction markets. The thin volume on Polymarket suggests this price is set by a relatively small pool of capital and may be more sensitive to last-minute information or sentiment shifts than a heavily traded market.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on additional betting markets for the Scottish Cup fifth-round match between Dundee FC and Motherwell FC, scheduled for February 4 at 2:45 PM Eastern Time. The primary event is a knockout football match in Scotland's premier domestic cup competition, but this specific market category expands beyond simple match outcome predictions. It includes specialized proposition bets such as exact scorelines, first goalscorer, total corners, bookings, and other in-game events that occur during the 90-minute contest. These markets appeal to bettors seeking more granular engagement with the match beyond which team advances to the quarter-finals. The Scottish Cup is a single-elimination tournament open to all senior clubs in Scotland, making each round potentially decisive for clubs' seasonal objectives and financial prospects through prize money and potential European qualification for the winner. Interest in these markets stems from the historical rivalry between these clubs, their contrasting recent form, and the unpredictable nature of cup football where lower-division teams often challenge Premiership sides. Dundee, as a Premiership club hosting Motherwell, another top-flight team, creates a balanced fixture that generates uncertainty and trading volume in prediction markets. The timing in early February places this match during a congested period of the Scottish football calendar, potentially affecting team selection and performance. Market participants analyze team news, tactical approaches, and historical head-to-head data to inform their positions on these proposition markets.
Dundee FC and Motherwell FC first competed in the Scottish Cup in the 1894-95 season, with Motherwell winning 3-2 in a first-round replay. Their cup history includes several memorable encounters, most notably in the 1951-52 tournament when Dundee defeated Motherwell 4-2 in a quarter-final replay en route to winning the competition, their only Scottish Cup triumph. In more recent history, the clubs met in the 2020-21 Scottish Cup third round, with Dundee winning 3-0 at Dens Park during the COVID-19 pandemic when matches were played behind closed doors. That victory was part of Dundee's run to the quarter-finals that season. The overall head-to-head record in the Scottish Cup slightly favors Dundee, with 6 wins to Motherwell's 5 from 13 meetings, with 2 draws. Their most recent competitive meeting before this fixture was a Scottish Premiership match on December 23, 2023, which ended in a 3-3 draw at Fir Park, demonstrating the potential for high-scoring encounters between these sides. Motherwell last won the Scottish Cup in 1991, defeating Dundee United in the final, while Dundee's sole victory came 39 years earlier in 1952. Both clubs have experienced lengthy droughts in the competition, adding significance to any potential deep run. The Scottish Cup itself dates back to 1873, making it the second-oldest national football competition in the world, behind only the English FA Cup.
Beyond the immediate football result, these prediction markets represent a growing segment of the global sports betting industry, which was valued at approximately $83 billion in 2023. Specialized markets like those offered for this match allow for more sophisticated engagement from bettors and traders, creating economic activity around specific in-game events rather than just final outcomes. For the clubs involved, progression in the Scottish Cup brings substantial financial rewards through prize money and potential television revenue, with the winner qualifying for UEFA Europa League playoff round football, worth approximately £3 million in participation fees alone. The social impact extends to local communities in Dundee and Motherwell, where successful cup runs can boost civic pride and local business revenue on matchdays. For football analysts and data companies, matches like this generate valuable performance data that feeds into player valuation models and tactical analysis used across the sport. The integrity of these markets is monitored by organizations like the Scottish FA and the Gambling Commission, as unusual betting patterns could indicate potential match-fixing concerns, though no such issues have been reported in recent Scottish Cup fixtures involving these clubs.
As of late January 2024, both clubs are preparing for this fifth-round tie while simultaneously competing in the Scottish Premiership. Dundee sit 8th in the league table with 24 points from 22 matches, while Motherwell are 10th with 19 points from 23 matches. Both managers have indicated they will field strong lineups despite league concerns, with Tony Docherty stating the Scottish Cup represents Dundee's 'best chance of silverware this season.' Team news indicates Dundee may be without defender Ricki Lamie due to a minor injury, while Motherwell expect to have midfielder Callum Slattery available after illness. The match will be played at Dundee's Dens Park, which has an artificial playing surface, a factor that some analysts believe affects playing style and injury risk. No major squad rotation is expected given the importance of the competition and the two-week interval since both teams' previous fixtures.
The match kicks off at 7:45 PM GMT on February 4, 2024. This converts to 2:45 PM Eastern Time for North American viewers and markets.
In the UK, the match is available on Viaplay Sports. International viewers should check local broadcasters, with some regions potentially accessing it through Scottish FA streaming services or international sports networks.
The match proceeds directly to a penalty shootout. Unlike earlier rounds, there is no replay in the fifth round of the Scottish Cup, ensuring a definitive winner on the day for betting settlement purposes.
Dundee have won the Scottish Cup once, in the 1951-52 season. They defeated Motherwell 4-2 in the quarter-finals during that successful campaign before beating Rangers 1-0 in the final.
Dens Park has a capacity of 11,775 for Scottish Cup matches. The stadium is expected to be near capacity given the importance of the fixture and the relatively close geographical proximity of the two clubs.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
5 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 64% |
| Poly | 62% |
| Poly | 59% |
| Poly | 36% |
| Poly | 26% |
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