GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?

Name: How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?
End: 2027-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$6.21K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?

Vol

$6.21K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $6.21K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.21K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will OpenAI raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will OpenAI raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO?	Poly	33%
Will OpenAI raise less than $30B in its IPO?	Poly	29%
Will OpenAI raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO?	Poly	24%
Will OpenAI raise at least $100B in its IPO?	Poly	14%
Will OpenAI raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?	Poly	10%
Will OpenAI raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO?	Poly	8%
Will OpenAI raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO?	Poly	5%
Will OpenAI raise between $30B and $40B in its IPO?	Poly	4%
Will OpenAI raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

33%

Top Probability

$6.21K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current sh

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2027 (482 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.

The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.

Secondary sales of existing shares by current sh

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.

The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final pr"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $12.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.49)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will OpenAI raise less than $30B in its IPO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $603
  DATA: [Yes: 28.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will OpenAI raise between $30B and $40B in its IPO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $463
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will OpenAI raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will OpenAI raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will OpenAI raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $496
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will OpenAI raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $489
  DATA: [Yes: 9.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.2% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will OpenAI raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $448
  DATA: [Yes: 32.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.3% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will OpenAI raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $306
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will OpenAI raise at least $100B in its IPO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 5, 2026): Vol $637
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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