GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

Name: What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
End: 2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$98.02K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

Vol

$98.02K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $98.02K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $98.02K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?	Poly	21%
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?	Poly	19%
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?	Poly	18%
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T?	Poly	10%
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?	Poly	10%
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?	Poly	7%
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.0T and $2.25T?	Poly	4%
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

21%

Top Probability

$98.02K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the op

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jul 1, 2027 (299 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. 

The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the op

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. 

The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $98.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $56.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.72)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $15.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $13.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $6.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $6.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $12.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.0T and $2.25T?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $4.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.6% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $36.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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