What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets are forecasting a 100% chance that Atlanta's temperature will not exceed 67°F on February 20. In practical terms, traders are completely certain the high will be 67 degrees or lower. This is an unusually strong consensus, with over $118,000 wagered across several related temperature questions. The final answer will come from the official weather station at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

Two main factors explain this near-certain prediction. First, the forecast is for a specific day just a few days away. Short-term weather models are generally reliable, and the available public forecasts likely show a high confidence for cooler temperatures. Second, late February in Atlanta has highly variable but often mild weather. The historical average high is around 60°F, but temperatures can swing. A prediction of 67°F or below aligns with a typical, slightly warmer-than-average late winter day, not an unseasonable heat spike. The market is essentially betting that no unexpected warm front will arrive on that exact date.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The only key date is February 20 itself. The market will resolve shortly after midnight on February 21, once the official high temperature for the 20th is recorded and published by the weather station at the airport. In the days leading up to the 20th, the primary signal to watch is the National Weather Service forecast for Atlanta. Any major last-minute shift in the predicted high, especially one approaching 68°F, could theoretically move the market, though the current 100% probability suggests traders see no chance of that.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

For short-term weather events, prediction markets are typically very accurate. They aggregate not just raw forecast data, but also the confidence of participants interpreting those forecasts. However, the "100% chance" shown here is more about market mechanics than meteorological certainty. It indicates no one is currently willing to bet against the outcome, often because the public forecast makes it seem inevitable. The main limitation is the small, but real, potential for a highly localized weather anomaly at the airport that models didn't capture.