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Oscar for Best Actor? | PredictPedia

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GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsEntertainment

Oscar for Best Actor?

Name: Oscar for Best Actor?
End: 2026-03-15T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$5.27M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.79M

Kalshi

markets · $2.48M

Price Spread

0.8%avg

max 2.5%

Arbitrage

of 15 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.27M

53%

47%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

16 markets tracked

Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Arbitrage

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(15)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?ARB	80%	78%	2%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?ARB	12%	15%	3%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	5%	4%	1%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	1%	3%	1%
Will Jesse Plemons win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	2%	1%	1%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	1%	2%	1%
Will Daniel Day-Lewis win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	0%	1%	0%
Will Dwayne Johnson win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	0%	1%	0%
Will Jeremy Allen White win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	0%	1%	0%
Will Paul Mescal win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	0%	1%	0%

Single-Platform Markets(1)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

80%

Top Probability

$5.27M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If X has won Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Oscar for Best Actor?
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X has won Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Leonardo DiCaprio has won Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.27M
* **Total Liquidity:** $58.68M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.09)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (15 mkts) vs Kalshi (16 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 15, 2026): Vol $278.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $453.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.5% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 15, 2026): Vol $240.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 79.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $542.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.0% spread between platforms.

### 3. Will Daniel Day-Lewis win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 15, 2026): Vol $95.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $24.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Jeremy Allen White win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 15, 2026): Vol $76.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $101.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Dwayne Johnson win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 15, 2026): Vol $297.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $86.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 15, 2026): Vol $89.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $372.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.3% spread between platforms.

### 7. Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 15, 2026): Vol $108.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.4% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $295.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.1% spread between platforms.

### 8. Will Paul Mescal win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 15, 2026): Vol $63.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $63.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Jesse Plemons win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 15, 2026): Vol $78.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $109.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.4% spread between platforms.

### 10. Will Brendan Fraser win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 15, 2026): Vol $152.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $31.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will George Clooney win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 15, 2026): Vol $65.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $19.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 15, 2026): Vol $242.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $324.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Channing Tatum win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 15, 2026): Vol $303.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $6.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Colin Farrell win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 15, 2026): Vol $478.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $8.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Hugh Jackman win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 15, 2026): Vol $213.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $22.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Tie win Best Actor at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $18.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

58d 20h remaining

Mar 15, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

7¢

Polymarket

7¢

Kalshi

3¢ price gap

Arbitrage Opps

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