Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Texas crude oil production in 2026

Total Volume

$179.41K

Events

Markets

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Texas crude oil production in 2026

Vol

$179.41K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $179.41K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $179.41K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.6 million barrels/day?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.6 million barrels/day?	Kalshi	99%
Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.7 million barrels/day?	Kalshi	98%
Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.8 million barrels/day?	Kalshi	36%
Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.9 million barrels/day?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$179.41K

Volume

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About This Event

2026 If EIA reports Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 is above X million barrels/day, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use EIA’s Texas Field Production of Crude Oil statistic. Production is measured in thousand barrels per day and will be converted to million barrels per day by dividing by 1,000. EIA notes that its Texas estimates may differ from Railroad Commission of Texas figures, so only EIA data will be used. This market will close

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Texas crude oil production in 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If EIA reports Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 is above X million barrels/day, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use EIA’s Texas Field Production of Crude Oil statistic. Production is measured in thousand barrels per day and will be converted to million barrels per day by dividing by 1,000. EIA notes that its Texas estimates may differ from Railroad Commission of Texas figures, so only EIA data will be used. This market will close 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If EIA reports Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 is above 

5.9 million barrels/day, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use EIA’s Texas Field Production of Crude Oil statistic. Production is measured in thousand barrels per day"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $179.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.9 million barrels/day?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $39.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.8 million barrels/day?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $37.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.7 million barrels/day?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $52.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.6 million barrels/day?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $49.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Texas crude oil production in 2026

Volume$179.41K

Markets4

4 of 4

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KALSHI

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.6 million barrels/day?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.5¢No 1.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.6 million barrels/day?

If EIA reports Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 is above 5.6 million barrels/day, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use EIA’s Texas Field Production of Crude Oil statistic. Production is measured in thousand barrels per day

KALSHI

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.7 million barrels/day?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.7 million barrels/day?

If EIA reports Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 is above 5.7 million barrels/day, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use EIA’s Texas Field Production of Crude Oil statistic. Production is measured in thousand barrels per day

KALSHI

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.8 million barrels/day?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 35.5¢No 64.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.8 million barrels/day?

If EIA reports Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 is above 5.8 million barrels/day, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use EIA’s Texas Field Production of Crude Oil statistic. Production is measured in thousand barrels per day

KALSHI

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.9 million barrels/day?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.9 million barrels/day?

If EIA reports Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 is above 5.9 million barrels/day, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use EIA’s Texas Field Production of Crude Oil statistic. Production is measured in thousand barrels per day

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Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.6 million barrels/day?

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Events (1)

Texas crude oil production in 2026

Markets (4)

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.6 million barrels/day?

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.6 million barrels/day?

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.7 million barrels/day?

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.7 million barrels/day?

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.8 million barrels/day?

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.8 million barrels/day?

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.9 million barrels/day?

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.9 million barrels/day?

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Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.6 million barrels/day?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Texas crude oil production in 2026

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.6 million barrels/day?

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.6 million barrels/day?

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.7 million barrels/day?

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.7 million barrels/day?

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.8 million barrels/day?

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.8 million barrels/day?

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.9 million barrels/day?

Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.9 million barrels/day?

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