Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Will Alaska crude oil production increase YoY in 2026?

Total Volume

$23.89K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Alaska crude oil production increase YoY in 2026?

Vol

$23.89K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $23.89K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $23.89K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Alaska’s total crude oil field production in 2026 be above 153.607 million barrels?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Alaska’s total crude oil field production in 2026 be above 153.607 million barrels?	Kalshi	81%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

81%

Top Probability

$23.89K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2026 If Alaska’s total crude oil field production in calendar year 2026 is above 153.607 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is Alaska’s calendar-year total field production of crude oil, measured in barrels. The 153.607 million-barrel baseline is fixed to the 2025 annual total at market launch; later revisions do not change the strike. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Alaska crude oil production increase YoY in 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If Alaska’s total crude oil field production in calendar year 2026 is above 

153.607 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is Alaska’s calendar-year total field production of crude oil, measured in barrels. The 153.607 million-barrel baseline is fixed to the 2025 annual total at market launch; later revisions do not change the strike. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Alaska’s total crude oil field production in calendar year 2026 is above 

153.607 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is Alaska’s calendar-year total field production of crude oil, measured in barrels. The 153.607 million-barrel baseline is fixed to "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $23.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Alaska’s total crude oil field production in 2026 be above 153.607 million barrels?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 8, 2027): Vol $23.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 80.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics