This prediction market topic focuses on the probability of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's removal as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31, 2026, specifically tracking whether the 'Yes' contract on Polymarket trades above 20% during a critical two-hour window on January 16, 2026. The market serves as a real-time barometer of geopolitical risk, reflecting investor sentiment about potential regime change in Iran. It functions as a derivative of the primary market concerning Khamenei's tenure, with resolution contingent on price action in that underlying contract during the specified timeframe. This creates a nuanced prediction instrument that isolates market confidence about a specific, high-stakes political outcome at a precise moment in time. Interest in this market stems from Iran's pivotal role in Middle Eastern geopolitics, global energy markets, and nuclear non-proliferation efforts. Khamenei, aged 85 as of 2024, has led Iran since 1989, making his potential departure a watershed event with implications for regional conflicts, oil prices, and international diplomacy. The market's focus on a January 2026 deadline coincides with a period of heightened domestic pressure, international sanctions, and succession planning within the Islamic Republic. Traders and analysts monitor such markets not only for potential financial gain but also as a crowdsourced forecast of political stability, often providing insights that complement traditional intelligence analysis.

Historical Context

Iran's political system, established after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, centers on the concept of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist), which grants the Supreme Leader ultimate authority. The position has been held by only two men: Ruhollah Khomeini (1979-1989) and Ali Khamenei (1989-present). Khamenei's succession followed Khomeini's death, a transition managed by the Assembly of Experts without major institutional disruption, though Khamenei initially lacked Khomeini's religious stature and consolidated power gradually. The 2009 Green Movement protests, sparked by disputed presidential elections, represented the most significant domestic challenge to Khamenei's authority in his early decades, but were suppressed by security forces. More recently, nationwide protests in 2017-2018 over economic grievances and again in 2022-2023 following Mahsa Amini's death demonstrated deepening social unrest and generational shifts in attitudes toward the regime. These protests, though met with severe repression, revealed cracks in the government's legitimacy, particularly among urban youth and women. Internationally, Iran has faced escalating pressure through U.S. sanctions reimposed after Washington's 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear deal, exacerbating economic difficulties that fuel public discontent. The historical precedent of a single, orderly succession in 1989 provides a model, but current circumstances differ markedly due to prolonged economic strain, regional tensions, and a more connected, restive population.

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