This prediction market topic concerns the potential for a future meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy before December 31, 2028. Such a meeting would represent a significant diplomatic event, given the ongoing full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine that began with Russia's invasion in February 2022. The market resolves to 'Yes' if a confirmed, direct meeting between the two leaders occurs within the specified timeframe, closing early upon the event. The topic captures intense international speculation about potential pathways to negotiation or conflict resolution in one of Europe's largest armed conflicts since World War II. Interest stems from the high stakes of the war, which involves territorial control, international alliances like NATO, and global energy and food security. The possibility of a leader-level summit is seen as a potential inflection point, though major obstacles, including preconditions about territorial integrity and security guarantees, make its occurrence highly uncertain. Analysts and diplomats closely monitor any signals from either capital regarding backchannel communications or shifting diplomatic positions that could pave the way for such high-stakes engagement.

Historical Context

The last confirmed in-person meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy occurred in Paris on December 9, 2019, during the Normandy Format summit alongside the leaders of France and Germany. That meeting, focused on implementing the Minsk agreements to end the conflict in Donbas, yielded a limited ceasefire and a prisoner exchange but failed to resolve core issues. The diplomatic relationship deteriorated rapidly following a massive Russian military buildup on Ukraine's borders in late 2021. Since the launch of the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, the two leaders have not met, though several rounds of lower-level negotiations took place in Belarus and Turkey during the war's initial weeks. These talks in February and March 2022, which addressed issues like neutrality and security guarantees, collapsed after the discovery of atrocities in Bucha and the hardening of military positions. The historical precedent shows that leader-level summits, such as the 2019 Paris meeting, have occurred within multilateral frameworks and with heavy involvement from European mediators, suggesting any future meeting would likely require similar external facilitation and a specific, narrowed agenda.

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