Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

Total Volume

$73.81K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

Vol

$73.81K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $73.81K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $73.81K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Dec 11, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Dec 11, 2026?	Kalshi	94%
Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 27, 2026?	Kalshi	83%
Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 13, 2026?	Kalshi	31%
Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	2%
Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

94%

Top Probability

$73.81K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

SpaceX Starship (15th launch) If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Oct X 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly confirmed by SpaceX If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** SpaceX Starship 15th launch?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** SpaceX Starship (15th launch)

If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Oct X 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly confirmed by SpaceX If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly c"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $73.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $27.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 23, 2026): Vol $25.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 27, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $6.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 13, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 20, 2026): Vol $8.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Dec 11, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 18, 2026): Vol $5.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

Volume$73.81K

Markets5

5 of 5

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KALSHI

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Dec 11, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.5¢No 6.5¢

KALSHITech

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Dec 11, 2026?

If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Dec 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly c

KALSHI

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 27, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 83.0¢No 17.0¢

KALSHITech

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 27, 2026?

If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Nov 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly c

KALSHI

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 13, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 30.5¢No 69.5¢

KALSHITech

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 13, 2026?

If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly c

KALSHI

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHITech

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 30, 2026?

If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly c

KALSHI

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 16, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHITech

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 16, 2026?

If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly c

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42¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/NVZYuy" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="SpaceX Starship 15th launch?"></iframe>

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SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

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Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Dec 11, 2026?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

Markets (5)

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Dec 11, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Dec 11, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 27, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 27, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 13, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 13, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 30, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 30, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 16, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 16, 2026?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Dec 11, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Dec 11, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Dec 11, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 27, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 27, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 13, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 13, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 30, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 30, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 16, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 16, 2026?

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