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2028 Libertarian Presidential nominee

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2028 Libertarian Presidential nominee

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Will Justin Amash be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

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Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Justin Amash be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?	Kalshi	27%
Will Chase Oliver be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?	Kalshi	17%
Will Dave Smith be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?	Kalshi	13%
Will Jo Jorgensen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?	Kalshi	7%
Will Spike Cohen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?	Kalshi	4%
Will Larry Sharpe be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?	Kalshi	2%
Will Michael Rectenwald be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?	Kalshi	2%
Will Lars Mapstead be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?	Kalshi	2%
Will Joshua Smith be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?	Kalshi	2%
Will Jacob Hornberger be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?	Kalshi	2%
Will Gary Johnson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

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27%

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$0.00

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About This Event

In 2028 If X wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Libertarian party, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Libertarian nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination. This market will close after Libertarian nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2028 Libertarian Presidential nominee
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2028

If X wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Libertarian party, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Libertarian nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination. This market will close after Libertarian nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Spike Cohen wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Libertarian party, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Libertarian nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Spike Cohen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Michael Rectenwald be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Larry Sharpe be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Lars Mapstead be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Joshua Smith be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jo Jorgensen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Jacob Hornberger be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Justin Amash be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Gary Johnson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Dave Smith be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Chase Oliver be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

2028 Libertarian Presidential nominee

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Markets11

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KALSHI

Will Justin Amash be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 27.0¢No 73.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Justin Amash be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

If Justin Amash wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Libertarian party, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Libertarian nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

KALSHI

Will Chase Oliver be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Chase Oliver be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

If Chase Oliver wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Libertarian party, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Libertarian nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

KALSHI

Will Dave Smith be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Dave Smith be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

If Dave Smith wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Libertarian party, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Libertarian nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

KALSHI

Will Jo Jorgensen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.1¢No 93.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Jo Jorgensen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

If Jo Jorgensen wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Libertarian party, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Libertarian nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

KALSHI

Will Spike Cohen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.6¢No 96.4¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Spike Cohen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

If Spike Cohen wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Libertarian party, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Libertarian nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

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2028 Libertarian Presidential nominee

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Will Justin Amash be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

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Events (1)

2028 Libertarian Presidential nominee

Markets (11)

Will Justin Amash be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

Will Justin Amash be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

Will Chase Oliver be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

Will Chase Oliver be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

Will Dave Smith be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

Will Dave Smith be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

Will Jo Jorgensen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

Will Jo Jorgensen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

Will Spike Cohen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

Will Spike Cohen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will Justin Amash be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

2028 Libertarian Presidential nominee

Will Justin Amash be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

Will Justin Amash be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

Will Chase Oliver be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

Will Chase Oliver be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

Will Dave Smith be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

Will Dave Smith be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

Will Jo Jorgensen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

Will Jo Jorgensen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

Will Spike Cohen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

Will Spike Cohen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

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