GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul

Name: Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul
End: 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$21.15K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul

Vol

$21.15K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $21.15K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $21.15K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?	Poly	84%
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?	Poly	17%
Will Clariana Barao win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?	Poly	0%
Will Edmilson Costa win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?	Poly	0%
Will Escritor Augusto Cury win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?	Poly	0%
Will Hertz Dias win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?	Poly	0%
Will Pablo Marçal win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?	Poly	0%
Will Renan Santos win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?	Poly	0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?	Poly	0%
Will Rui Costa Pimenta win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?	Poly	0%
Will Samara win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?	Poly	0%
Will Veterinário Wilson Grassi win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?	Poly	0%
Will Zema win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

84%

Top Probability

$21.15K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this mark

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (29 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this mark

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $21.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $122.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.17)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Clariana Barao win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Edmilson Costa win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Escritor Augusto Cury win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $7.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Hertz Dias win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $493
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Pablo Marçal win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $858
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Renan Santos win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $591
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Rui Costa Pimenta win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $641
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Samara win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Veterinário Wilson Grassi win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $759
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Zema win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics