$184.20K
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$184.20K
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between November 5, 2025 ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market addresses the possibility of a nuclear weapon detonation occurring anywhere on Earth or in space between November 5, 2025, and June 30, 2026. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if any nuclear detonation occurs during this period, regardless of context, including offensive military use, nuclear testing, or accidental detonation. It will resolve to 'No' if no such event occurs. The market specifically excludes nuclear weapon launches or uses that fail to detonate, as well as conventional explosions at nuclear facilities or radiological dispersal devices (dirty bombs). This timeframe coincides with a period of heightened geopolitical tensions involving multiple nuclear-armed states, making the assessment of nuclear risk particularly relevant. Interest in this market stems from growing concerns among policymakers, security analysts, and the public about the erosion of nuclear norms, the modernization of nuclear arsenals, and increased rhetoric about nuclear readiness from several world leaders. The market provides a mechanism to aggregate collective intelligence on what many consider one of the most consequential global security questions.
The historical context of nuclear detonations begins with the first atomic test, Trinity, conducted by the United States on July 16, 1945, in New Mexico. This was followed by the only wartime uses of nuclear weapons, the bombings of Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, and Nagasaki on August 9, 1945, which killed approximately 200,000 people. Since then, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been conducted by at least eight nations, with the last U.S. test occurring in 1992 and the most recent North Korean test in 2017. The 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty prohibited atmospheric, underwater, and outer space tests, pushing testing underground. The 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) bans all nuclear explosions but has not entered into force because key nations, including the U.S., China, and North Korea, have not ratified it. The period since the Cold War has seen a significant reduction in nuclear testing, with only India, Pakistan, and North Korea conducting tests in the 21st century. However, the modernization of nuclear arsenals and development of new weapon types by major powers has kept the technical possibility of testing or use alive. The historical precedent shows that nuclear detonations have occurred during periods of intense geopolitical rivalry, technological development, and regional conflict, patterns that are re-emerging in the current strategic environment.
A nuclear detonation during this period would represent a catastrophic failure of the international non-proliferation regime that has prevented nuclear use since 1945. Beyond the immediate loss of life and environmental devastation at the detonation site, such an event would trigger global economic shockwaves, likely causing stock market collapses, supply chain disruptions, and energy market volatility. The political ramifications would include the potential collapse of alliance systems, emergency United Nations Security Council sessions, and possible retaliatory actions that could escalate into broader conflict. Socially, a nuclear detonation would create profound psychological trauma worldwide, challenging fundamental assumptions about security and potentially leading to mass migrations from affected regions and heightened surveillance states. The event would immediately affect populations within the blast zone and downwind areas through radiation exposure, but the downstream consequences would impact global trade, diplomatic relations, and collective security arrangements for decades. It would fundamentally alter risk calculations for governments, corporations, and individuals, potentially ushering in a new era of nuclear anxiety comparable to the worst periods of the Cold War.
As of late 2024, multiple geopolitical flashpoints create elevated nuclear risks. The war in Ukraine continues with periodic Russian nuclear rhetoric, while NATO conducts nuclear readiness exercises. North Korea has resumed ballistic missile testing and declared its nuclear status permanent, rejecting denuclearization talks. Iran continues to advance its uranium enrichment capabilities, with the IAEA reporting it has enriched uranium to 60%, close to weapons-grade levels. U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan persist alongside China's nuclear arsenal expansion. India and Pakistan maintain their nuclear standoff with periodic border clashes. The New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia remains suspended, with no replacement arms control agreements under negotiation. These concurrent developments create what experts describe as the most dangerous nuclear environment since the Cold War's height.
For this market, any nuclear explosion from a nuclear weapon anywhere on Earth or in space will trigger a 'Yes' resolution. This includes intentional military use, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. It excludes failed detonations, conventional explosions at nuclear facilities, and radiological dispersal devices (dirty bombs) that do not create a nuclear chain reaction.
Based on current geopolitical tensions, analysts point to North Korea as most likely to conduct a nuclear test, given its history of testing and rejection of test bans. Russia is considered a possibility in extreme escalation scenarios in Ukraine. India-Pakistan conflict escalation represents another potential pathway, as does miscalculation involving nuclear-armed states in the Middle East.
Multiple detection systems would identify a nuclear detonation. The International Monitoring System of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization uses seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasound, and radionuclide sensors globally. National technical means, including satellite surveillance and radiation detection networks operated by nuclear-armed states, would also detect and characterize any explosion. These systems can distinguish nuclear from conventional explosions with high confidence.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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