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$3.60K
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In 2026 If X wins the Supreme Court election in Wisconsin in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the swearing in of the Supreme Court representative for the seat in question. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Supreme Court representative for the seat in question.
Prediction markets currently assign an 86% probability to Chris Taylor winning the 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election. This price, trading on Kalshi, indicates the market views a Taylor victory as the overwhelming consensus outcome. An 86% chance suggests the race is seen as firmly leaning in her favor, though not a complete certainty. With approximately $4,000 in total volume across related markets, liquidity remains thin, meaning these odds could be more sensitive to new information than a heavily traded market.
The high confidence in Chris Taylor is primarily driven by the current ideological balance of the Wisconsin Supreme Court and recent electoral trends. In 2023, Justice Janet Protasiewicz's victory secured a 4-3 liberal majority on the court, a pivotal shift after 15 years of conservative control. The 2026 race will be for the seat currently held by conservative Justice Rebecca Bradley, making it a direct opportunity for liberals to consolidate their majority. Taylor, a progressive Wisconsin Court of Appeals judge, is a prominent and likely candidate in this political environment. The market is pricing in the continued momentum of high-spending, high-turnout liberal victories in recent state judicial elections, which have become proxy wars for national political issues like abortion access.
The primary catalyst that could shift these odds is the official candidate field. While Chris Taylor is a presumed frontrunner, the formal declaration of candidates and potential primary challenges could introduce volatility. A strong, well-funded conservative challenger emerging could tighten the projected race, especially if national political dynamics shift by 2026. Furthermore, the thin trading volume means any new polling data or major campaign finance reports closer to the election date could cause significant price movement. The market will also be highly sensitive to the 2024 presidential and state legislative elections, as their outcomes will set the political landscape and voter mobilization models for the 2026 cycle.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election will determine which political faction controls the state's highest judicial body, with profound implications for Wisconsin's legal landscape. This prediction market specifically tracks the outcome of that election, resolving to 'Yes' if a designated candidate wins the seat. The election is for one of the court's seven justices, with the winner serving a ten-year term. The court's ideological balance has become intensely contested in recent years, making each election a high-stakes political battle that draws national attention and significant campaign spending. The market will close early following the swearing-in of the elected justice, providing a clear resolution point tied directly to the official outcome of the electoral process. Interest in this market stems from Wisconsin's status as a perennial political battleground where state supreme court decisions frequently influence national policy debates on issues like abortion access, voting rights, and legislative redistricting. The 2026 election follows a period of dramatic ideological shifts on the court, creating uncertainty about its future direction and making this race a focal point for political strategists, legal observers, and investors seeking to forecast judicial outcomes.
Wisconsin Supreme Court elections have transformed from sleepy, nonpartisan affairs into some of the nation's most expensive and polarized judicial contests. This shift began in the late 1990s as part of a national trend toward politicized judicial elections, but accelerated dramatically following the 2011 passage of Act 10, Governor Scott Walker's controversial legislation limiting collective bargaining for public employees. The law sparked massive protests and litigation that repeatedly reached the Supreme Court, highlighting its political importance. In 2016, the court's conservative majority expanded to 5-2, a dominance that lasted until 2020. That year, liberal candidate Jill Karofsky defeated conservative incumbent Daniel Kelly, narrowing the conservative advantage to 4-3. The 2023 election then flipped the court to a 4-3 liberal majority when Janet Protasiewicz defeated Kelly again, marking the first liberal majority since 2008. This reversal occurred after the court's conservative bloc issued several consequential decisions, including upholding the state's 1849 abortion ban in 2022, a ruling the new liberal majority is expected to revisit. The escalating campaign spending mirrors this polarization, with total costs rising from under $6 million in 2007 to over $45 million in 2023, making Wisconsin a national epicenter for judicial election battles.
Control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court has direct consequences for millions of residents and national political dynamics. The court will likely decide cases on abortion access, voting rules for the 2028 presidential election, legislative redistricting following the 2030 census, and environmental regulations affecting the Great Lakes region. These decisions will shape Wisconsin's legal environment for a decade or more, influencing business regulations, individual rights, and the balance of power between the governor and legislature. The court's composition also affects whether Wisconsin serves as a legal backstop or accelerator for policies originating from either political party. For national observers, Wisconsin's status as a perennial swing state means its supreme court often becomes the final arbiter on election law disputes that could determine presidential outcomes. The 2026 election could either cement the current liberal majority or return the court to conservative control, with ripple effects across the Upper Midwest and potentially the nation.
As of late 2024, the 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court election is in its early stages, with potential candidates beginning to gauge support and party organizations assessing the landscape. Justice Ann Walsh Bradley has not announced whether she will seek re-election or retire when her term ends in 2026. The Wisconsin Democratic Party, emboldened by its 2023 victory, is preparing to defend the seat and maintain its 4-3 majority. Meanwhile, the Wisconsin Republican Party is seeking a candidate who can appeal to both the conservative base and moderate voters in a statewide election. Several lower-court judges and prominent attorneys from both parties are reportedly considering runs. The court's new liberal majority is hearing several high-profile cases on abortion, redistricting, and environmental regulations, with decisions expected in 2025 that could become central issues in the 2026 campaign.
The election will be held on April 7, 2026, coinciding with Wisconsin's spring general election. If no candidate receives a majority in the primary scheduled for February 17, 2026, the top two vote-getters will advance to the April general election.
The seat currently held by Justice Ann Walsh Bradley will be on the ballot in 2026. She was first elected in 1995 and re-elected in 2006 and 2016. Her current ten-year term expires on July 31, 2026.
The 2023 election between Janet Protasiewicz and Daniel Kelly set a national record with over $45 million in total spending. This shattered the previous record of $15 million spent on Wisconsin's 2020 Supreme Court election.
Recent elections have focused on abortion access, voting rights, legislative redistricting, and environmental regulations. These issues reflect the court's role in deciding cases that shape state policy on socially divisive and politically consequential matters.
Justices are elected in nonpartisan spring elections for ten-year terms. However, in practice, candidates are openly endorsed by political parties and run campaigns that highlight their ideological leanings, making these effectively partisan contests.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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3 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Who will win the Supreme Court race in Wisconsin? (Chris Taylor) | Kalshi | 86% |
Who will win the Supreme Court race in Wisconsin? (Maria Lazar) | Kalshi | 11% |
Who will win the Supreme Court race in Wisconsin? (Rebecca Bradley) | Kalshi | 3% |
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