Starmer approval Up or Down in April? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Starmer approval Up or Down in April?

Name: Starmer approval Up or Down in April?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$51.10

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Markets

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Starmer approval Up or Down in April?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $51.10

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $51.10

100%

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1 market tracked

Starmer approval Up or Down in April?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Starmer approval Up or Down in April?	Poly	50%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$51.10

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

According to YouGov's most recent data point, the percentage of all adults who think that Keir Starmer is doing well as Prime Minister was 21% as of March 23, 2026 (https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/keir-starmer-prime-minister-approval). This market will resolve to "Up" if the next data point released for "all adults" who "think that Keir Starmer is doing well as Prime Minister" is higher than 21%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the next respective data point released is lower than 21%.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 29, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Starmer approval Up or Down in April?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (32 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** According to YouGov's most recent data point, the percentage of all adults who think that Keir Starmer is doing well as Prime Minister was 21% as of March 23, 2026 (https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/keir-starmer-prime-minister-approval).

This market will resolve to "Up" if the next data point released for "all adults" who "think that Keir Starmer is doing well as Prime Minister" is higher than 21%.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the next respective data point released is lower than 21%.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"According to YouGov's most recent data point, the percentage of all adults who think that Keir Starmer is doing well as Prime Minister was 21% as of March 23, 2026 (https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/keir-starmer-prime-minister-approval).

This market will resolve to "Up" if the next data point relea"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $51
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Starmer approval Up or Down in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $51
  DATA: [Up: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [Down: 50.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

31d 11h remaining

Apr 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

50¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/NeZT3J" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Starmer approval Up or Down in April?"></iframe>

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Starmer approval Up or Down in April?

Starmer approval Up or Down in April?

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Starmer approval Up or Down in April?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)