Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

NYPD uniformed headcount at the end of 2026?

Total Volume

$427.70

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NYPD uniformed headcount at the end of 2026?

Vol

$427.70

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $427.70

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

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Volume DistributionTotal: $427.70

100%

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7 markets tracked

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34250 as of December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34250 as of December 31, 2026?	Kalshi	93%
Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34500 as of December 31, 2026?	Kalshi	85%
Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34750 as of December 31, 2026?	Kalshi	66%
Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35000 as of December 31, 2026?	Kalshi	49%
Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35250 as of December 31, 2026?	Kalshi	32%
Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35500 as of December 31, 2026?	Kalshi	15%
Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35750 as of December 31, 2026?	Kalshi	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

93%

Top Probability

$427.70

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

as of December 31, 2026 If the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category is above X as of December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** NYPD uniformed headcount at the end of 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** as of December 31, 2026

If the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category is above X as of December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category is above 35,750 as of December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $428
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35750 as of December 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 30, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35500 as of December 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 30, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35250 as of December 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 30, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35000 as of December 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 30, 2027): Vol $223
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34750 as of December 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 30, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 66.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34500 as of December 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 30, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34250 as of December 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 30, 2027): Vol $205
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

NYPD uniformed headcount at the end of 2026?

Volume$427.70

Markets7

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KALSHI

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34250 as of December 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34250 as of December 31, 2026?

If the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category is above 34,250 as of December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34500 as of December 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.0¢No 15.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34500 as of December 31, 2026?

If the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category is above 34,500 as of December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34750 as of December 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 66.0¢No 34.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34750 as of December 31, 2026?

If the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category is above 34,750 as of December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35000 as of December 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 48.5¢No 51.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35000 as of December 31, 2026?

If the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category is above 35,000 as of December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35250 as of December 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 32.0¢No 68.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35250 as of December 31, 2026?

If the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category is above 35,250 as of December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34250 as of December 31, 2026?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

NYPD uniformed headcount at the end of 2026?

Markets (7)

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34250 as of December 31, 2026?

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34250 as of December 31, 2026?

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34500 as of December 31, 2026?

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34500 as of December 31, 2026?

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34750 as of December 31, 2026?

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34750 as of December 31, 2026?

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35000 as of December 31, 2026?

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35000 as of December 31, 2026?

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35250 as of December 31, 2026?

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35250 as of December 31, 2026?

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Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34250 as of December 31, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

NYPD uniformed headcount at the end of 2026?

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34250 as of December 31, 2026?

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34250 as of December 31, 2026?

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34500 as of December 31, 2026?

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34500 as of December 31, 2026?

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34750 as of December 31, 2026?

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34750 as of December 31, 2026?

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35000 as of December 31, 2026?

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35000 as of December 31, 2026?

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35250 as of December 31, 2026?

Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35250 as of December 31, 2026?

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