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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture

Highest Domestically Grossing March Film on April 30?

Name: Highest Domestically Grossing March Film on April 30?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$146.99K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Highest Domestically Grossing March Film on April 30?

Vol

$146.99K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $146.99K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $146.99K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will Project Hail Mary be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Project Hail Mary be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?	Poly	100%
Will The Bride be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?	Poly	14%
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$146.99K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the title of the film released in March 2026 with the highest domestic gross between opening and April 30, 2026 according to "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest Domestically Grossing March Film on April 30?
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the title of the film released in March 2026 with the highest domestic gross between opening and April 30, 2026 according to "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the title of the film released in March 2026 with the highest domestic gross between opening and April 30, 2026 according to "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page.

In"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $147.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $13.0K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 11.29)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $87.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will The Bride be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $12.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Project Hail Mary be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $47.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETCulture