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2026 If GDP growth in || year || is X Y or Z then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction markets are currently assigning a low probability to U.S. GDP growth falling within a narrow, moderate range for 2026. The leading contract on Kalshi, "GDP growth in 2026? (2.1% to 2.5%)", is trading at approximately 17 cents, implying just a 17% chance. This pricing suggests the market views this specific outcome as quite unlikely, with the vast majority of probability mass assigned to growth being either higher or lower than this band. The extremely thin trading volume, however, indicates this is a speculative, illiquid market with low confidence in the current price as a precise forecast.
The low probability reflects significant long-term economic uncertainty. First, 2026 is beyond the standard two-year forecasting horizon used by major institutions like the Federal Reserve and the Congressional Budget Office, making any precise range highly speculative. Second, the market is likely pricing in the wide dispersion of potential outcomes based on policy decisions yet to be made, including the expiration of the 2017 tax cuts and the trajectory of federal debt. Historically, U.S. GDP growth has averaged around 2-3% in recent decades, so this 2.1-2.5% band represents a plausible central tendency, but the market is effectively betting that the actual result will deviate from this mean.
These odds will become more meaningful and volatile as the date approaches and liquidity increases. Key catalysts that will directly impact pricing include the release of official long-term projections from the CBO, typically updated in early winter, and the economic policy platforms defined during the 2024 presidential election cycle. A decisive election result pointing to a clear fiscal path could consolidate probability into more specific ranges. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's success in managing inflation back to its 2% target without triggering a severe recession will be a critical factor shaping 2026 growth expectations. Until these events unfold, the market will likely remain illiquid with a wide spread of probabilities across different growth bins.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2026 refers to the projected annual percentage increase in the total monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a nation's borders during that calendar year. It serves as the primary barometer of a country's economic health and expansion. For prediction markets, the specific question typically revolves around whether the actual GDP growth rate will fall within a predetermined range, such as above 2.5%, between 1.5% and 2.5%, or below 1.5%, with the market resolving to 'Yes' for the correct outcome. Forecasting 2026 GDP involves analyzing complex interplays of monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, labor market dynamics, productivity trends, and global economic conditions. Interest in this metric is exceptionally high among policymakers, investors, corporations, and the public, as it directly influences job creation, interest rates, corporate profits, and government budgetary decisions. The projection for 2026 is particularly significant as it falls beyond the typical short-term business cycle, requiring analysis of structural economic trends and long-term policy impacts.
U.S. GDP growth has averaged approximately 2.3% annually over the last two decades, from 2000 to 2023, but this period masks significant volatility. The 2001 dot-com bust, the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic induced sharp recessions, with GDP contracting by 2.6% in 2009 and 2.8% in 2020. The post-pandemic recovery was exceptionally strong, with growth reaching 5.9% in 2021, the highest since 1984, fueled by massive fiscal stimulus and pent-up demand. Historically, periods of above-trend growth are often followed by a slowdown or recession as the economy normalizes and policy tightens. For instance, after growth of 4.0% in 1999, it slowed to 1.0% in 2001. The forecasting of GDP two years ahead has proven challenging. In July 2022, the CBO's initial projection for 2024 growth was 2.2%, but by July 2024, it had revised that estimate down to 1.5%, illustrating the difficulty of long-range economic prediction. The performance of the economy in 2025 will be the most direct precursor to 2026 conditions, making the current monetary policy cycle a critical historical input.
The GDP growth rate in 2026 will have profound implications for the economic well-being of millions of Americans. A strong growth rate, typically above 2.5%, generally supports robust job creation, rising wages, and increased government tax revenues, which can fund social programs or reduce budget deficits. Conversely, growth below 1.5% may signal economic stagnation, potentially leading to higher unemployment, weaker business investment, and increased pressure on social safety nets. Politically, the 2026 growth figure will land in the middle of a presidential term, influencing the policy agenda and public perception of economic management. It will also set the stage for the 2028 presidential election cycle. For financial markets, the anticipated growth rate affects asset allocation, corporate earnings forecasts, and long-term interest rates, impacting everything from retirement savings to mortgage costs. Ultimately, the trajectory of GDP growth shapes the nation's capacity to address long-term challenges like climate change, infrastructure renewal, and an aging population.
As of late 2024, the U.S. economy is navigating a period of moderating growth following the post-pandemic surge. The Federal Reserve has paused its aggressive interest rate hiking cycle but has signaled that rates will remain elevated for an extended period to ensure inflation returns sustainably to its 2% target. Most official forecasts, including those from the CBO and the Federal Reserve's own Summary of Economic Projections, anticipate a soft landing, with growth slowing but avoiding a recession in 2025 before stabilizing in 2026. Key uncertainties include the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening, the resilience of consumer spending in the face of depleted savings, and the potential for geopolitical shocks to disrupt global trade and energy markets. The outcome of the 2024 presidential election will also set the fiscal policy agenda for the years leading into 2026.
Economists generally consider growth between 2.0% and 3.0% annually to be healthy and sustainable for the modern U.S. economy, as it outpaces population growth and supports job creation without typically triggering high inflation. Growth consistently above 3.0% is viewed as strong, while growth below 1.5% is often seen as weak and potentially signaling economic trouble.
The Federal Reserve influences GDP growth primarily by setting the federal funds rate, which affects interest rates across the economy. Lowering rates stimulates growth by making borrowing cheaper for businesses and consumers, encouraging investment and spending. Raising rates slows growth by increasing borrowing costs, which helps control inflation but can dampen economic activity.
Nominal GDP growth measures the increase in the dollar value of economic output without adjusting for inflation. Real GDP growth adjusts nominal growth for inflation, reflecting the actual increase in the quantity of goods and services produced. Economists and prediction markets almost exclusively focus on real GDP growth because it measures true economic expansion.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases GDP estimates on a quarterly basis. The final, official annual growth figure for a calendar year, such as 2026, is typically published in the third estimate of the fourth quarter data, which is released in late March of the following year (e.g., March 2027 for 2026 data).
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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14 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
GDP growth in 2026? (2.1 to 2.5) | Kalshi | 17% |
GDP growth in 2026? (2.6 to 3.0) | Kalshi | 16% |
GDP growth in 2026? (3.1 to 3.5) | Kalshi | 11% |
GDP growth in 2026? (1.6 to 2.0) | Kalshi | 11% |
GDP growth in 2026? (0.0 or below) | Kalshi | 9% |
GDP growth in 2026? (3.6 to 4.0) | Kalshi | 7% |
GDP growth in 2026? (1.1 to 1.5) | Kalshi | 7% |
GDP growth in 2026? (4.1 to 4.5) | Kalshi | 6% |
GDP growth in 2026? (0.6 to 1.0) | Kalshi | 6% |
GDP growth in 2026? (4.6 to 5.0) | Kalshi | 5% |
GDP growth in 2026? (0.1 to 0.5) | Kalshi | 5% |
GDP growth in 2026? (5.1 to 5.5) | Kalshi | 4% |
GDP growth in 2026? (5.6 to 6.0) | Kalshi | 4% |
GDP growth in 2026? (6.1 or above) | Kalshi | 3% |
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