This prediction market topic concerns whether former President Donald Trump will grant an interview to conservative commentator Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025, and February 28, 2026. The market specifically resolves to 'Yes' if a scheduled, recorded conversation occurs where Trump answers questions posed by Carlson, excluding press conferences or media briefings where Carlson is merely in attendance. The outcome hinges on credible consensus reporting confirming such an event. This topic sits at the intersection of media, politics, and the 2026 midterm election cycle, capturing significant public and investor interest due to the influential roles both figures play in conservative discourse. Interest is heightened by the historical precedent of their collaboration, most notably Carlson's exclusive interview with Trump following the FBI's search of Mar-a-Lago in August 2022, which garnered massive viewership. The specified timeframe is strategically significant, covering the post-Thanksgiving period through the end of February, a window often used for political messaging ahead of primary seasons. Observers are monitoring whether Trump will utilize Carlson's platform, which commands a dedicated audience on X (formerly Twitter) and through his Tucker Carlson Network, as a key channel for communicating his policy positions and counter-narratives against mainstream media coverage.

Historical Context

The relationship between Donald Trump and Tucker Carlson is a significant chapter in modern political media. Carlson, while at Fox News, was often critical of Trump during the 2016 primaries but became one of his most prominent defenders during his presidency. Their media partnership reached a new level after Carlson's departure from Fox News in April 2023. On August 23, 2022, Carlson published an exclusive interview with Trump on X shortly after the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago. The interview was not promoted in advance but quickly amassed over 267 million views, showcasing an alternative media distribution model that circumvented traditional networks. This event set a powerful precedent for future collaborations. Furthermore, Carlson conducted a controversial interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin in February 2024, demonstrating his continued pursuit of headline-grabbing conversations with world leaders. The historical pattern shows Trump frequently uses interviews with sympathetic hosts to communicate directly with his base, control his narrative, and respond to political or legal developments. The defined period for this market, November 2025 to February 2026, follows the expected conclusion of the 2024 presidential election, placing it in a new political cycle where Trump, whether as a president-elect, a former president, or a party leader, would likely be active in shaping the narrative for the upcoming 2026 midterm elections.

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