Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Who will be House Minority Leader in the 120th Congress?

Total Volume

$94.23K

Events

Markets

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Who will be House Minority Leader in the 120th Congress?

Vol

$94.23K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $94.23K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $94.23K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

16 markets tracked

Will Jim Jordan win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Jim Jordan win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	27%
Will Mike Johnson win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	14%
Will Steve Scalise win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	9%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	7%
Will Kevin Hern win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	2%
Will August Pfluger win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	2%
Will Richard Hudson win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	2%
Will Tom Emmer win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	2%
Will Ted Lieu win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	1%
Will Pete Aguilar win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	1%
Will Mike Lawler win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	1%
Will Lisa McClain win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	1%
Will Katherine Clark win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jay Obernolte win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	1%
Will Joe Neguse win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

27%

Top Probability

$94.23K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

For the 120th Congress If X wins the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. For this indirect election, the winner is the candidate elected House Minority Leader by the House Democratic Caucus or the House Republican Conference of whichever party holds the minority in the 120th Congress, as certified by that body. X later change in the office does not affect resolution. If the minority party selects someone not listed, every market resolves NO. T

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be House Minority Leader in the 120th Congress?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** For the 120th Congress

If X wins the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. For this indirect election, the winner is the candidate elected House Minority Leader by the House Democratic Caucus or the House Republican Conference of whichever party holds the minority in the 120th Congress, as certified by that body. X later change in the office does not affect resolution. If the minority party selects someone not listed, every market resolves NO. T

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Kevin Hern wins the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For this indirect election, the winner is the candidate elected House Minority Leader by the House Democratic Caucus or the House Republican Conference of whichever party h"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $94.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Kevin Hern win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 30, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will August Pfluger win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 30, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Richard Hudson win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 30, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Ted Lieu win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 30, 2027): Vol $10.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Tom Emmer win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 30, 2027): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Steve Scalise win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 30, 2027): Vol $7.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Pete Aguilar win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 30, 2027): Vol $11.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Mike Lawler win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 30, 2027): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Mike Johnson win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 30, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Lisa McClain win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 30, 2027): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Katherine Clark win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 30, 2027): Vol $11.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Jay Obernolte win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 30, 2027): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Joe Neguse win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 30, 2027): Vol $10.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Jim Jordan win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 30, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 30, 2027): Vol $13.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 30, 2027): Vol $8.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Who will be House Minority Leader in the 120th Congress?

Volume$94.23K

Markets16

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KALSHI

Will Jim Jordan win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 26.5¢No 73.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Jim Jordan win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

If Jim Jordan wins the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For this indirect election, the winner is the candidate elected House Minority Leader by the House Democratic Caucus or the House Republican Conference of whichever party h

KALSHI

Will Mike Johnson win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Mike Johnson win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

If Mike Johnson wins the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For this indirect election, the winner is the candidate elected House Minority Leader by the House Democratic Caucus or the House Republican Conference of whichever party

KALSHI

Will Steve Scalise win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Steve Scalise win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

If Steve Scalise wins the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For this indirect election, the winner is the candidate elected House Minority Leader by the House Democratic Caucus or the House Republican Conference of whichever part

KALSHI

Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

If Hakeem Jeffries wins the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For this indirect election, the winner is the candidate elected House Minority Leader by the House Democratic Caucus or the House Republican Conference of whichever pa

KALSHI

Will Kevin Hern win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Kevin Hern win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

If Kevin Hern wins the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For this indirect election, the winner is the candidate elected House Minority Leader by the House Democratic Caucus or the House Republican Conference of whichever party h

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Who will be House Minority Leader in the 120th Congress?

Who will be House Minority Leader in the 120th Congress?

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Will Jim Jordan win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

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Events (1)

Who will be House Minority Leader in the 120th Congress?

Markets (16)

Will Jim Jordan win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

Will Jim Jordan win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

Will Mike Johnson win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

Will Mike Johnson win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

Will Steve Scalise win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

Will Steve Scalise win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

Will Kevin Hern win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

Will Kevin Hern win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

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Will Jim Jordan win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

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Who will be House Minority Leader in the 120th Congress?

Will Jim Jordan win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

Will Jim Jordan win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

Will Mike Johnson win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

Will Mike Johnson win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

Will Steve Scalise win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

Will Steve Scalise win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

Will Kevin Hern win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

Will Kevin Hern win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

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