Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd Place

Name: French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd Place
End: 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$21.79K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd Place

Vol

$21.79K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $21.79K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $21.79K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will Olivier Faure finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Olivier Faure finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	Poly	100%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	Poly	0%
Will Philippe Brun finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	Poly	0%
Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	Poly	0%
Will Jérôme Guedj finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	Poly	0%
Will Emmanuel Maurel finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$21.79K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary. If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd Place
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 10, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.

This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.

If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.

This market will resolve to the candidate who rec"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $21.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $117.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.19)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Raphaël Glucksmann finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Olivier Faure finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $6.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Philippe Brun finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $615
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $8.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Jérôme Guedj finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $557
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Emmanuel Maurel finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics