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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?

Name: What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?
End: 2026-06-01T03:59:59.999Z

Total Volume

$7.98K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?

Vol

$7.98K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $7.98K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $7.98K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

14 markets tracked

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in May?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in May?	Poly	77%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 in May?	Poly	74%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?	Poly	53%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?	Poly	52%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?	Poly	38%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in May?	Poly	27%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	Poly	24%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	Poly	23%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May?	Poly	23%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in May?	Poly	20%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $670 in May?	Poly	17%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $660 in May?	Poly	13%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May?	Poly	5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

77%

Top Probability

$7.98K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 1, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $14.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.32)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $186
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $53
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $187
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $369
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $645
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $160
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $510
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $185
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $670 in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $660 in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?

Volume$7.98K

Markets14

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POLYMARKET

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in May?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 76.5¢No 23.5¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in May?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which

POLYMARKET

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 in May?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 73.5¢No 26.5¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 in May?

POLYMARKET

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 53.0¢No 47.0¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which t

POLYMARKET

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 52.0¢No 48.0¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?

POLYMARKET

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 37.5¢No 62.5¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

32¢

Polymarket

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Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in May?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?

Markets (14)

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in May?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in May?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 in May?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 in May?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?

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Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in May?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in May?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in May?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 in May?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 in May?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?

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