This prediction market topic concerns whether the South Korean girl group NewJeans will perform again as a group by March 31, 2026. The market specifically resolves to 'Yes' if NewJeans gives at least one live performance between November 13, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying performance requires at least three members performing together under the group name 'NewJeans' for a live audience or as part of a livestreamed or televised event. Prerecorded content aired during this period does not count, nor do solo or sub-unit activities. This question has gained significant attention due to the group's meteoric rise and subsequent hiatus following a major contract dispute and legal battle involving their management company, ADOR, and its parent company, HYBE. NewJeans, known for hits like 'Hype Boy' and 'OMG', became one of K-pop's fastest-growing acts, making their performance status a critical indicator of the group's future and the stability of the broader K-pop industry. The market reflects investor and fan speculation on whether the group can overcome internal corporate conflicts and return to the stage, a scenario with substantial financial and cultural implications.

Historical Context

NewJeans debuted in July 2022 under ADOR, a HYBE subsidiary, and immediately achieved unprecedented success with their singles 'Attention' and 'Hype Boy'. They set records for the fastest K-pop girl group to reach 1 billion streams on Spotify and won multiple 'Rookie of the Year' awards in 2023. Their performance history includes major year-end shows in 2022 and 2023, such as MBC's 'Gayo Daejejeon' and the 'Melon Music Awards'. However, in April 2024, a severe conflict erupted between ADOR CEO Min Hee-jin and HYBE. HYBE launched an audit and attempted to oust Min, alleging she was planning a coup to separate ADOR. Min counter-sued, claiming HYBE was attempting to steal NewJeans's management rights and sabotage the group. This legal battle, which played out in South Korean courts and media, forced the group into an indefinite hiatus from official group promotions and performances in mid-2024. The dispute highlighted the tensions between creative independence and corporate control within HYBE's multi-label system. Past precedents in K-pop, such as the lengthy legal disputes involving groups like EXO's former members or LOONA, show that such conflicts can lead to performance hiatuses lasting years, making NewJeans's potential return within a defined timeframe a subject of intense speculation.

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