Market snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

Fed Decision in March?

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Fed Decision in March?

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Snapshot from Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC

As of Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 25 bps increase at 38%.

Polymarket

25 bps increase38%
No change26%
50+ bps decrease23.5%
25 bps decrease23.5%
50+ bps increase23.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

5 markets tracked

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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?	Poly	38.0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting?	Poly	26.0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2027 meeting?	Poly	23.5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?	Poly	23.5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2027 meeting?	Poly	23.5%

Rules & Resolution

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Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC

About This Event

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 16-17, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Fed Decision in March?
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $0
Coverage: 5 of 5 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2027 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6322989; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-march-2027-meeting
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Mar 18, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 23.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 76.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 16-17, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement

Contract: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6322990; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-march-2027-meeting
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Mar 18, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 23.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 76.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 16-17, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement

Contract: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6322991; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-march-2027-meeting
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Mar 18, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 26.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 74.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 16-17, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement

Contract: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6322992; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-march-2027-meeting
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Mar 18, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 38.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 62.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 16-17, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement

Contract: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2027 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6322993; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-march-2027-meeting
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Mar 18, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 23.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 76.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 16-17, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy

Fed Decision in March?

Volume$0.00

Markets5

5 of 5

Sort:

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?

polymarket

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?

Yes: 38.0¢
No: 62.0¢

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting?

polymarket

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting?

Yes: 26.0¢
No: 74.0¢

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2027 meeting?

polymarket

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2027 meeting?

Yes: 23.5¢
No: 76.5¢

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?

polymarket

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?

Yes: 23.5¢
No: 76.5¢

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2027 meeting?

polymarket

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2027 meeting?

Yes: 23.5¢
No: 76.5¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiEconomics

Fed decision in Oct 2026?

PM $86.69M · K 21.51M contracts

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 94.8%Rules differK Yes 27.5%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2027 meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 94.8%Rules differK Yes 58.5%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2027 meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 94.8%Rules differK Yes 63%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

100 saved comparisonsNext deadline Oct 29, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiSports

Fed funds rate after Dec 2027 meeting?

PM $1.93M · K 526.1K contracts

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2027?

Kalshi: Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.75%?

Related contracts

PM Yes 3.5%Rules differK Yes 92%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2027?

Kalshi: Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.00%?

Related contracts

PM Yes 3.4%Rules differK Yes 90.5%

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤2.5% at the end of 2027?

Kalshi: Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.50%?

Related contracts

PM Yes 0.6%Rules differK Yes 89%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

26 saved comparisonsNext deadline Dec 31, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiEconomics

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

PM $54.92M · K 11.12M contracts

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Fed cut rates 0 times?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 96%Rules differK Yes 94.3%

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Fed cut rates 1 time?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 1.4%Rules differK Yes 1.9%

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Fed cut rates 2 times?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 0.1%Rules differK Yes 0.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

13 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

PolymarketEconomy

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

Kalshi: Will Bank of Canada hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 90%Rules differK Yes 48.5%

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

Kalshi: Will Bank of Canada hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 90%Rules differK Yes 84.5%

Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?

Kalshi: Will Bank of Canada hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 85%Rules differK Yes 48.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

18 saved comparisonsNext deadline Oct 28, 2026 UTC

No related news found

Discussion

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Mar 18, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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