BNB Up or Down - October 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract from an event titled "BNB Up or Down - October 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET" [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the stated window "is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range." Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The named resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that other sources or spot markets do not govern it [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-19T03:25:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's closing time, not a resolution result. The evidence does not report how or when the contract settled.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T00:28:52.860Z [1]. The status was "active" in the saved record. These are different timestamps, and the prices describe the observation time, not the moment you are reading this.
The saved quotes are "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two outcomes sum to 1.00 in this record, and the gap between them is 0.01. Because this is one binary market, the sample contains no other outcomes to compare. The coverage record shows one market included out of one listed, with no partial sample [1].
Volume is not part of this interpretation. The record does not report trading volume, liquidity, or the number of traders, so none of those can be inferred.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the quotes stand where they do. It also does not report any price movement after the observation time, so the current quote for this contract is unknown from this record. Because the window is only five minutes, the outcome depends on the Chainlink TWAP compared with the opening price of that range, and the supplied material does not include those data points.
If you compare this contract with a differently worded BNB market on another platform, check the resolution wording and listed close time first. Differences in window, data source, or close time mean the prices should not be treated as the same question.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window price contract on BNB, the asset tied to the BNB Chain, titled BNB Up or Down for the period from 11:20PM to 11:25PM ET on October 18. The contract is listed on Polymarket [1]. It asks whether BNB's price over that five-minute window will end up above or below where it started. Under the contract's rules, the market resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1]. The outcome is not decided by any price source the reader might choose. The contract specifies that the resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream that the source identifies by address [1]. The source also states that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink TWAP stream for the BNB/USD pair, and not according to other sources or spot markets [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a BNB price shown on an exchange or a chart could therefore see a different figure from the one that determines resolution. The listed end time for this contract is 2026-10-19T03:25:00Z [1]. That date is the scheduled close written in the contract rules. It is not evidence of when the outcome was determined or when any settlement took place.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of BNB's price over a single five-minute window, using an average rather than a single moment's price. Because the rule compares the TWAP across the window with the price at the window's start, a move that occurs late in the window and a move that occurs early can produce different averages even when the closing level is similar. The rule as written sets Up at equality, so an average exactly equal to the starting price resolves Up [1]. Readers should check the resolution wording rather than assume it matches a simple open-versus-close comparison. The prices shown for this contract are snapshots of the listed Up and Down outcomes at the time the provider data was observed. In the saved snapshot, Up was priced at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These figures are not executable quotes and should not be read as verified probabilities of the outcome. Volume and the number of traders are not part of the evidence for this entry, so no conclusion about liquidity can be drawn from it.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What price determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract compares the time-weighted average price of BNB over the 11:20PM to 11:25PM ET window with the price at the start of that window. It resolves to Up if the average is greater than or equal to the starting price, and to Down otherwise [1].
Which data source is used to settle the contract?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The contract says other sources and spot markets are not the reference [1].
Does a price of 0.505 for Up mean there is a 50.5 percent chance of an Up outcome?
No. The saved prices are snapshots of the listed outcomes at the time of observation and are not verified probabilities [1]. They are also not executable quotes.
Does the listed end time mean the contract has already settled?
The listed end time is 2026-10-19T03:25:00Z [1]. That is the scheduled close in the contract rules. It does not by itself show whether or when the outcome was determined.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.