GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

WA-03 primary: who will advance?

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WA-03 primary: who will advance?

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11 markets tracked

Will John Braun advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

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Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will John Braun advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?	Kalshi	94%
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?	Kalshi	89%
Will Brent Hennrich advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?	Kalshi	9%
Will Antony Barran advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?	Kalshi	5%
Will Austin Braswell advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?	Kalshi	3%
Will Lawrence Kellogg advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?	Kalshi	2%
Will Troy Rasband advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?	Kalshi	1%
Will John Saulie-Rohman advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?	Kalshi	1%
Will John P Roco advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?	Kalshi	1%
Will Wadi Yakhour advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?	Kalshi	1%
Will Suzzanna Tanner advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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94%

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About This Event

WA-03 If X advances in the 2026 WA-03 primary, then the market resolves to Yes. The top two advancers will resolve to Yes. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** WA-03 primary: who will advance?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** WA-03

If X advances in the 2026 WA-03 primary, then the market resolves to Yes. The top two advancers will resolve to Yes. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Wadi Yakhour advances in the 2026 WA-03 primary, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The top two advancers will resolve to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Wadi Yakhour advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Troy Rasband advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Suzzanna Tanner advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Lawrence Kellogg advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will John Saulie-Rohman advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will John P Roco advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will John Braun advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Brent Hennrich advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Austin Braswell advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Antony Barran advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

WA-03 primary: who will advance?

WA-03 If X advances in the 2026 WA-03 primary, then the market resolves to Yes. The top two advancers will resolve to Yes. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Volume$0.00

Markets11

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KALSHI

Will John Braun advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.0¢No 6.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will John Braun advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

If John Braun advances in the 2026 WA-03 primary, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The top two advancers will resolve to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.5¢No 11.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

If Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advances in the 2026 WA-03 primary, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The top two advancers will resolve to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Brent Hennrich advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Brent Hennrich advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

If Brent Hennrich advances in the 2026 WA-03 primary, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The top two advancers will resolve to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Antony Barran advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Antony Barran advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

If Antony Barran advances in the 2026 WA-03 primary, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The top two advancers will resolve to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Austin Braswell advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Austin Braswell advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

If Austin Braswell advances in the 2026 WA-03 primary, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The top two advancers will resolve to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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WA-03 primary: who will advance?

WA-03 primary: who will advance?

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Will John Braun advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

WA-03 primary: who will advance?

Markets (11)

Will John Braun advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Will John Braun advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Will Brent Hennrich advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Will Brent Hennrich advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Will Antony Barran advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Will Antony Barran advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Will Austin Braswell advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Will Austin Braswell advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will John Braun advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

WA-03 primary: who will advance?

Will John Braun advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Will John Braun advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Will Brent Hennrich advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Will Brent Hennrich advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Will Antony Barran advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Will Antony Barran advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Will Austin Braswell advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Will Austin Braswell advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

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Discussion

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