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$1.24M
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On Jan 28, 2026 If the Chair of the Federal Reserve says X his Jan 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A, then the market resolves to Yes. Video of the || Address || will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the || Address || will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/te
Prediction markets are pricing in near certainty that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will use the word "expectation" during his January 28, 2026, post-FOMC press conference. The leading market, "Will Powell say Expectation at his Jan 2026 press conference?" is trading at 97% on Polymarket, indicating the market views this outcome as virtually assured. On Kalshi, the same contract trades at approximately 92%, creating a notable 5.3% spread. A 97% probability suggests traders see the inclusion of this specific term as a core component of the Fed's standard communication toolkit, making its omission a significant surprise.
The high probability is driven by the term's foundational role in Federal Reserve forward guidance. "Expectation" is a staple in the Chair's remarks when discussing the economic outlook, inflation projections, or the likely path of monetary policy. Historical analysis of recent FOMC transcripts shows Powell used a form of the word "expect" over a dozen times in his December 2025 press conference alone, typically in phrases like "our expectation is that inflation will continue to moderate." Secondly, with the January meeting being the first of the year, markets anticipate Powell will explicitly outline the Federal Open Market Committee's expectations for the annual economic and policy trajectory, making the term's usage almost mechanically certain.
The primary risk to the current near certain pricing is an extraordinary shift in communication strategy. If the Fed were to adopt unexpectedly terse, direct language due to a major financial crisis or a sharp, unforeseen economic turn, Powell might deviate from his detailed, expectation setting remarks. However, given the institutional nature of these communications, such a shift is considered highly improbable. The 5% differential between platforms may narrow as the event approaches, but it primarily reflects platform specific liquidity and trader base differences rather than a fundamental disagreement on the outcome.
A clear arbitrage opportunity exists, with Polymarket pricing the event at 97% and Kalshi at roughly 92%. This 5.3% spread is meaningful for high volume traders. The discrepancy likely stems from differing participant pools and liquidity concentrations. Polymarket's higher price may reflect a global crypto native audience with strong consensus, while Kalshi's U.S. regulated platform might attract traders who are slightly more cautious in assigning absolute certainty to specific word choice, despite the overwhelming historical precedent. This spread is expected to converge as resolution nears, with arbitrageurs selling the Polymarket "Yes" shares and buying the Kalshi equivalent.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic centers on the specific language Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might use during his introductory remarks and subsequent question-and-answer session following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for January 28, 2026. The market resolves based on whether Powell utters a predetermined word or phrase, with video footage serving as the primary source for resolution. This type of market reflects the intense scrutiny placed on the Federal Reserve's communications, where subtle shifts in terminology can signal major policy changes and move global financial markets. Investors, economists, and policymakers parse every word from the Fed Chair for clues about the future path of interest rates, inflation expectations, and economic outlook. The January 2026 meeting is particularly significant as it will set the monetary policy tone for the new year and provide the Fed's first comprehensive assessment of the economy after the previous year's holiday season and initial data releases. Interest in such predictive markets stems from their ability to aggregate crowd-sourced expectations about highly consequential, yet uncertain, official communications that have direct impacts on asset prices, business investment decisions, and consumer confidence.
The tradition of the Fed Chair holding post-FOMC meeting press conferences began under Ben Bernanke in 2011, transforming monetary policy communication from a written-statement-only affair to a live, televised event. This increased transparency also amplified the market impact of specific phrases. Historically, certain terms have become powerful signals. For instance, in December 2015, then-Chair Janet Yellen's use of 'gradual' to describe the anticipated pace of rate hikes set expectations for years. Conversely, Powell's labeling of inflation as 'transitory' in 2021 became a focal point of policy criticism when price pressures proved persistent. The January meeting itself has often been a venue for setting the annual policy narrative. In January 2019, amid market volatility, Powell notably pivoted to a more patient stance, stating the Fed would be 'flexible' and 'patient,' which calmed financial conditions. The precise wording used in these sessions is therefore not merely descriptive but performative, actively shaping economic and financial conditions. Past prediction markets on Fed communications have sought to forecast the use of terms like 'patient,' 'data-dependent,' or 'sufficiently restrictive,' demonstrating a long-standing market interest in parsing Fed semantics.
The specific language used by the Fed Chair carries immense weight for the global economy. A single word can trigger billions of dollars in asset repricing, influence business capital expenditure plans, and affect mortgage rates for millions of homeowners. For example, a hint of heightened concern about inflation could lead to a sell-off in bonds and equities, tightening financial conditions. Conversely, a suggestion of increased confidence in disinflation could boost risk assets. Beyond financial markets, the messaging influences consumer and business confidence, impacting spending and hiring decisions. It also has significant political ramifications, as the Fed's policy stance affects economic conditions in an election year, drawing scrutiny from the White House and Congress. The outcome of this prediction market serves as a quantified, crowd-sourced gauge of market expectations for Fed rhetoric, providing a real-time snapshot of perceived policy risks that is often more nuanced than traditional surveys.
As of late 2024, the Federal Reserve is in a data-dependent holding pattern after concluding its historic interest rate hiking cycle. Markets are focused on the timing and pace of potential future rate cuts. The economic landscape leading into 2026 remains uncertain, contingent on the evolution of inflation, labor market resilience, and global economic factors. The most recent FOMC statements and Powell's press conferences have emphasized a cautious, meeting-by-meeting approach, with policymakers stating they need 'greater confidence' that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2% before cutting rates. The specific economic data releases in the fourth quarter of 2025 will be critical in shaping the narrative for the January 2026 meeting.
The press conference typically begins at 2:30 PM Eastern Time, approximately 30 minutes after the release of the FOMC's policy statement. This schedule is standard for all meetings accompanied by a press conference.
The Chair's opening remarks are meticulously drafted by Fed staff in collaboration with the Chair and committee to accurately reflect the FOMC's policy decision and economic assessment. The Q&A portion is unscripted, though the Chair prepares for likely topics based on recent data and market concerns.
Prediction market contracts typically specify the individual in the role. If a new Chair is in place by that date, the market would resolve based on that person's remarks. The contract rules would govern any ambiguity, but such a scenario would represent a major political and economic event in itself.
Yes, historically, specific Fed language has caused immediate and significant market volatility. For example, in 2013, the mention of 'tapering' bond purchases triggered the 'Taper Tantrum,' a sharp spike in bond yields. Markets are highly attuned to changes in nuance.
The Federal Reserve provides a live video stream on its official website. Major financial news networks like Bloomberg Television, CNBC, and Fox Business also carry the press conference live and provide immediate analysis.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
![]() | 96% | 96% | 1% |
![]() | 43% | 45% | 2% |
![]() | 36% | 39% | 4% |
![]() | 18% | 23% | 5% |
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On Jan 28, 2026 If the Chair of the Federal Reserve says X his Jan 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A, then the market resolves to Yes. Video of the || Address || will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the || Address || will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/te

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on January 28, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word w


Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on January 28, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the F

If the Chair of the Federal Reserve says Good Afternoon at his Jan 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Video of the || Address || will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached usin
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