This prediction market focuses on whether the results of Honduras' November 30, 2025, presidential election will be formally annulled by February 28, 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the Honduras Tribunal de Justicia Electoral or another official government body with legal jurisdiction declares the election results invalid by that deadline. This question emerges from Honduras's history of electoral disputes and constitutional crises, most notably the 2009 coup that removed President Manuel Zelaya and the contested 2017 election that prompted weeks of violent protests. The 2025 election occurs amid significant political polarization, economic challenges, and concerns about democratic backsliding in Central America. Observers are monitoring for potential irregularities, legal challenges, and institutional responses that could trigger an annulment scenario. International bodies like the Organization of American States and domestic civil society groups are closely watching the electoral process, given Honduras's fragile democratic institutions and the high stakes for regional stability. The possibility of annulment reflects broader anxieties about the rule of law and the independence of electoral authorities in Honduras.

Historical Context

Honduras has experienced repeated electoral crises and institutional instability over the past two decades. The most significant precedent occurred in 2009 when President Manuel Zelaya was removed in a military coup after proposing a constitutional referendum, leading to international condemnation and Honduras's temporary suspension from the OAS. The 2013 election restored civilian rule but was followed by the deeply controversial 2017 election. Incumbent President Juan Orlando Hernández sought re-election despite constitutional term limits, using a disputed 2015 Supreme Court ruling to enable his candidacy. Official results showing Hernández's narrow victory over Salvador Nasralla triggered massive protests that left at least 30 people dead and allegations of fraud from the OAS observation mission. Although Hernández took office, the legitimacy crisis persisted throughout his term. In 2021, Xiomara Castro won the presidency, marking the first peaceful transfer of power between opposing parties since 2009. However, her administration has faced governance challenges, including corruption scandals and economic difficulties, setting the stage for another high-stakes election in 2025. The 2022 passage of electoral reforms aimed to increase transparency, but trust in institutions remains low.

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