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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Republican Party win the FL-06 House seat? | Poly | 92% |
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-06 House seat? | Poly | 9% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for Florida's 6th congressional district (FL-06). The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate in the November 4, 2026, midterm election. The district encompasses parts of Volusia and Flagler counties on Florida's Atlantic coast, including the cities of Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, and Palm Coast. The seat is currently held by Republican Michael Waltz, who has represented the district since 2019. The 2026 election will be the first under new congressional district boundaries following the 2030 census redistricting cycle, though the district's current configuration was established by the Florida Legislature in 2022 and upheld by the state Supreme Court. Political observers monitor this district as a potential bellwether for Republican strength in suburban and coastal Florida. The outcome could signal broader national trends in the 2026 midterms, particularly regarding suburban voter sentiment and the political realignment of non-urban coastal areas. Interest in this market stems from its function as a political forecasting tool, allowing participants to speculate on partisan control of a competitive House seat that may influence the balance of power in Congress.
Florida's 6th congressional district has existed in various forms since 1943. Its modern political character was shaped by redistricting following the 2010 census. From 2013 to 2017, the district was represented by Republican Ron DeSantis, who vacated the seat to run successfully for governor in 2018. The district boundaries were significantly altered by the 2022 redistricting process initiated by Governor DeSantis. The Florida Legislature passed a new congressional map (P 0109) during a special session in April 2022, which was signed by DeSantis. This map replaced a previous district configuration that had been more favorable to Democrats, stretching from Jacksonville to Orlando. The 2022 map consolidated the district into a more compact Republican-leaning area centered on Volusia and Flagler counties. The Florida Supreme Court declined to block the map in 2023, allowing it to stand for the 2024 and presumably the 2026 elections. Historically, the area has trended Republican in federal elections, but local races in Volusia County have shown competitive swings. The previous version of the district voted for Donald Trump by approximately 11 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. The new configuration made the district more solidly Republican, with Trump's 2020 margin increasing to an estimated 14 points under the new lines.
The FL-06 election matters because control of the U.S. House of Representatives often hinges on a small number of competitive districts. While this district currently leans Republican, a Democratic victory here in 2026 would indicate a significant national wave election or a substantial local realignment. The district's economy is heavily influenced by tourism, healthcare, and aerospace manufacturing, particularly around Daytona Beach. Federal policies on coastal management, flood insurance, and transportation infrastructure directly affect the region. The election outcome will determine which party represents approximately 770,000 constituents in Congress on issues like beach renourishment funding, support for Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, and regulation of the NASCAR industry headquartered in Daytona. For political strategists, the race serves as a test case for Republican messaging in suburban areas and Democratic efforts to make inroads with veterans and older voters. A closer-than-expected result could signal vulnerability for Republicans in similar districts across the Sun Belt, potentially influencing national party strategy and resource allocation for the remainder of the election cycle.
As of early 2025, Representative Michael Waltz has not formally announced his re-election campaign for 2026 but is widely expected to seek another term. No major Democratic challengers have declared candidacy. The district boundaries remain those established by the 2022 redistricting map, which survived legal challenges. Political action committees and party committees are beginning to assess the national House landscape for 2026, with FL-06 currently rated as 'Safe Republican' by most non-partisan election forecasters like Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. The Florida Democratic Party is focused on recruiting candidates for more competitive districts but may revisit FL-06 depending on national political conditions closer to the election.
The district includes all of Flagler County and most of Volusia County on Florida's Atlantic coast. Major cities include Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, Palm Coast, Port Orange, and DeLand. The district also contains smaller communities like Flagler Beach and Pierson.
Republican Michael Waltz has represented Florida's 6th congressional district since January 2019. He was first elected in 2018 to replace Ron DeSantis, who vacated the seat to run for governor. Waltz serves on the House Armed Services Committee and the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party.
Official results for the 2024 presidential election in FL-06 are not yet fully certified and analyzed by congressional district. However, based on county-level results and the district's partisan lean, most analysts project the district voted for the Republican presidential candidate by a double-digit margin.
Under its current boundaries established in 2022, FL-06 is not considered a competitive swing district by most political analysts. It is rated as 'Safe Republican' or 'Likely Republican' due to its voter registration advantage and recent election results. The district could become more competitive under different national political conditions or with exceptional candidate recruitment.
The candidate filing deadline for the 2026 election has not been officially set by the Florida Division of Elections. For the 2024 election cycle, the deadline was in April 2024. The 2026 deadline will likely be in April or May of 2026, following the schedule established by Florida election law.
Key issues include coastal erosion and beach management, property insurance rates and availability, economic development and tourism recovery, healthcare access for an aging population, and transportation infrastructure. The district's proximity to space operations at Kennedy Space Center also makes aerospace policy relevant.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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