This prediction market addresses the possibility of Iran conducting a direct military strike against United States military assets before February 28, 2026. The market specifically resolves to 'Yes' if Iran carries out a successful attack on U.S. military ships, planes, bases, or other infrastructure. Failed strikes, such as those intercepted by missile defenses, do not count. The question emerges from a period of heightened tension between the United States and Iran, marked by proxy conflicts, targeted assassinations, and incidents in the Persian Gulf. Since the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018, Iran has expanded its nuclear program and increased its support for regional militias. These groups have attacked U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, but a direct strike from Iran's conventional military remains a significant escalation threshold. Interest in this market stems from analysts monitoring whether ongoing regional conflicts, particularly involving Israel and Gaza, could trigger a wider war that draws in the U.S. and Iran directly. Military planners assess Iran's growing arsenal of drones and missiles, while diplomats watch for signals from Tehran and Washington. The market essentially quantifies the perceived risk of a major interstate conflict in the Middle East within a defined timeframe.

Historical Context

U.S.-Iran hostilities have deep roots, beginning with the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the subsequent hostage crisis at the U.S. embassy in Tehran. For decades, confrontation has been largely indirect, through proxies. A significant escalation occurred in January 2020, when a U.S. drone strike at Baghdad International Airport killed Qasem Soleimani, the powerful commander of Iran's Quds Force. In retaliation, on January 8, 2020, Iran launched a direct ballistic missile attack on two Iraqi military bases housing U.S. troops: Al-Asad and Erbil. Over 100 U.S. service members were diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries from the strikes, but no Americans were killed. This event established a precedent for Iran directly targeting U.S. military infrastructure. Another key precedent is Iran's seizure and harassment of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which has repeatedly drawn U.S. naval responses. Since 2019, Iran has also been accused of attacking oil tankers with mines and drones. The U.S. maintains approximately 30,000 troops in the Middle East, with significant concentrations in Iraq, Syria, and naval forces in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea, creating persistent points of friction.

Frequently Asked Questions