Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Gemini Argon: Humanity's Last Exam Debut?

Name: Gemini Argon: Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
End: 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$44.61K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Gemini Argon: Humanity's Last Exam Debut?

Vol

$44.61K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $44.61K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $44.61K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Poly	89%
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Poly	86%
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Poly	66%
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Poly	12%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

89%

Top Probability

$44.61K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Argon model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date fo

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Gemini Argon: Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jul 1, 2027 (263 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Argon model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date fo

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program.

This market will resolve to "Yes""

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $44.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $13.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.35)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $12.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $9.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $13.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 66.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $9.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech