This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Evo Morales arrested by May 31

Name: Evo Morales arrested by May 31
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$9.72K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Evo Morales arrested by May 31

Vol

$9.72K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $9.72K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.72K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Evo Morales arrested by May 31

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Evo Morales arrested by May 31	Poly	18%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

18%

Top Probability

$9.72K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into phys

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Evo Morales arrested by May 31
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into phys

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $529
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 18.38)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Evo Morales arrested by May 31
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $9.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics