Evo Morales arrested by May 31 | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Evo Morales arrested by May 31

Name: Evo Morales arrested by May 31
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$9.15K

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Markets

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Evo Morales arrested by May 31

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Polymarket

markets · $9.15K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.15K

100%

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1 market tracked

Evo Morales arrested by May 31

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Evo Morales arrested by May 31	Poly	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

16%

Top Probability

$9.15K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into phys

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Evo Morales arrested by May 31
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (44 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into phys

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.29)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Evo Morales arrested by May 31
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $9.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

43d 8h remaining

May 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

16¢

Polymarket

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Evo Morales arrested by May 31

Evo Morales arrested by May 31

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Evo Morales arrested by May 31

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)