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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Highest temperature in Munich on May 3?

Name: Highest temperature in Munich on May 3?
End: 2026-05-03T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$7.11K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Highest temperature in Munich on May 3?

Vol

$7.11K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $7.11K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $7.11K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on May 3?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on May 3?	Poly	68%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 3?	Poly	24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 3?	Poly	10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 3?	Poly	3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 3?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 3?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 3?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 3?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or below on May 3?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 3?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 3?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

68%

Top Probability

$7.11K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Cel

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Munich on May 3?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 3, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Cel

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $68.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.11)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or below on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $523
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $489
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $324
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $606
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $348
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $402
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $738
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $246
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 68.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate