Market snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIClimate and Weather

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026?

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K 4.5K contracts

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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026?

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K 4.5K contracts

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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kalshi

4.5K contracts

Reported lifetime volume

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Price ChartContract price history

7 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.8)

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.8)	Kalshi	22.0%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.0)	Kalshi	16.0%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.2)	Kalshi	11.5%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.4)	Kalshi	10.0%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.6)	Kalshi	7.0%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 7.0)	Kalshi	5.5%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.8)	Kalshi	5.0%

Rules & Resolution

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AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 4.5K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

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Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC

About This Event

Worldwide on Oct 15, 2026 If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 15, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is X or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude, Mw, and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026?
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 4.5K contracts
Coverage: 7 of 7 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 7.0)
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXBIGGESTQUAKE-15OCT26-7.0; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbiggestquake-15oct26
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 5.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 94.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 15, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 7.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Contract: What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.8)
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXBIGGESTQUAKE-15OCT26-6.8; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbiggestquake-15oct26
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 190.49 contracts
Outcome Yes: 5.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 15, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Contract: What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.6)
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXBIGGESTQUAKE-15OCT26-6.6; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbiggestquake-15oct26
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 345.72 contracts
Outcome Yes: 7.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 93.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 15, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Contract: What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.4)
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXBIGGESTQUAKE-15OCT26-6.4; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbiggestquake-15oct26
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 384.41 contracts
Outcome Yes: 10.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 90.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 15, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Contract: What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.2)
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXBIGGESTQUAKE-15OCT26-6.2; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbiggestquake-15oct26
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 329.93 contracts
Outcome Yes: 11.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 88.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 15, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Contract: What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.0)
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXBIGGESTQUAKE-15OCT26-6.0; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbiggestquake-15oct26
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 400.49 contracts
Outcome Yes: 16.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 84.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 15, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Contract: What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.8)
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXBIGGESTQUAKE-15OCT26-5.8; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbiggestquake-15oct26
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 478.12 contracts
Outcome Yes: 22.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 78.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 15, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIClimate and Weather