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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026?

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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026?

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026?
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Vol

4.5K contracts

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Markets

7

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Market snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC. Prices may have changed.

Market Price Graph

7 markets tracked

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.8)

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All Markets(7)
MarketOutcome price
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.8)
Yes 22.0%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.0)
Yes 16.0%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.2)
Yes 11.5%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.4)
Yes 10.0%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.6)
Yes 7.0%

Event Overview

Worldwide on Oct 15, 2026 If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 15, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is X or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude, Mw, and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Market Resolution Rules

Important Notes

  • Markets resolve based on official data sources specified in the rules
  • Resolution may be delayed if official data is not immediately available
  • Kalshi markets are regulated by the CFTC and follow strict resolution procedures
  • Always verify the exact resolution criteria before trading
View full terms on Kalshi

Markets (7)

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KALSHIClimate
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.8)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.8)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 15, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Yes outcome22.0%
Yes
Volume478.12 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateNov 14, 2026
View Details
KALSHIClimate
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.0)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.0)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 15, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Yes outcome16.0%
Yes
Volume400.49 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateNov 14, 2026
View Details
KALSHIClimate
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.2)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.2)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 15, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Yes outcome11.5%
Yes
Volume329.93 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateNov 14, 2026
View Details
KALSHIClimate
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.4)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.4)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 15, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Yes outcome10.0%
Yes
Volume384.41 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateNov 14, 2026
View Details
KALSHIClimate
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.6)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.6)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 15, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Yes outcome7.0%
Yes
Volume345.72 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateNov 14, 2026
View Details
KALSHIClimate
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 7.0)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 7.0)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 15, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 7.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Yes outcome5.5%
Yes
Volume2.4K contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateNov 14, 2026
View Details
KALSHIClimate
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.8)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.8)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 15, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Yes outcome5.0%
Yes
Volume190.49 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateNov 14, 2026
View Details

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