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$85.27K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class III, special election, Florida Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.
Prediction markets currently give Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody a very high probability of becoming the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2026. The consensus across betting platforms suggests traders see this as nearly certain, with about a 93% chance. In simple terms, this means traders believe there is roughly a 9 in 10 likelihood that Moody will win the Republican primary. The special election is for the Senate seat currently held by Republican Marco Rubio, who is not running for re-election that year.
Traders are betting heavily on Moody for a few clear reasons. First, she is a well-established statewide official with high name recognition, having served as Florida's Attorney General since 2019. In Florida politics, that kind of existing platform is a significant advantage in a primary. Second, she appears to have a clear path without a major challenger. Other prominent Florida Republicans, like Governor Ron DeSantis, have indicated they will not run for this seat. The lack of a strong competitor makes Moody the obvious frontrunner. Finally, her political alignment is solidly within the current Florida Republican mainstream, which reduces the risk of a serious challenge from the party's right flank.
The Republican primary is scheduled for August 25, 2026. However, the most important developments will happen long before that. The candidate qualifying deadline in June 2026 is the formal cutoff. The main event to watch is whether any other major Florida Republican figures, such as a member of Congress or a cabinet official, decides to enter the race before the end of 2025. A surprise entry by a popular figure could shift the odds. Otherwise, Moody's campaign launch, expected sometime in 2025, will likely cement her status.
For U.S. Senate primaries where a clear frontrunner exists a year in advance, prediction markets have a decent track record. They are generally good at aggregating information about political establishment support and candidate strength. The main limitation here is time. The election is over two years away, and political fortunes can change. A scandal, a major misstep, or an unexpected popular challenger could disrupt Moody's path. While the current 93% probability shows strong consensus, it is still a forecast about an event that has not yet begun in earnest.
Prediction markets assign a 93% probability that Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody will be the Republican nominee for the state's 2026 U.S. Senate special election. This price, found on Kalshi, indicates near-certainty in her securing the GOP nomination. On Polymarket, the equivalent contract trades at 79%, creating a significant 14-point arbitrage spread. The combined trading volume across platforms is approximately $85,000, which is relatively low for a major political event over two years away. A 93% chance means the market views Moody’s nomination as the overwhelming favorite, with only a minor chance of an upset.
The high confidence stems from Moody’s entrenched position within Florida’s political structure. As a two-term Attorney General and a close ally of Governor Ron DeSantis, she has high name recognition and established donor networks. Florida’s Republican Party has increasingly favored anointed successors and clear front-runners in recent cycles, discouraging messy primary fights. No other candidate with comparable stature or resources has signaled a challenge. Historical precedent also plays a role. The last open Senate race in Florida, the 2018 Republican primary, was decisively won by the establishment-backed candidate, Rick Scott.
The primary is not until August 2026, leaving considerable time for the political situation to shift. A major scandal involving Moody or the DeSantis administration could quickly erode her support. A well-funded challenger, potentially from the U.S. House delegation like Byron Donalds or Matt Gaetz, could enter the race and capitalize on any perceived weakness. National Republican priorities may also change following the 2024 elections, altering the type of candidate the party’s base desires. The large price gap between Kalshi (93%) and Polymarket (79%) itself suggests traders are weighing these risks differently, with Polymarket participants pricing in a more substantial chance of an upset.
The 14-point spread between Kalshi (93c) and Polymarket (79c) is unusually wide for a linked political event. This discrepancy likely stems from differing trader bases and platform mechanics. Kalshi, a regulated U.S. exchange, may attract traders who place greater weight on institutional endorsements and current political hierarchy. Polymarket’s global, crypto-native user base might be more skeptical of a coronation and more attuned to potential volatility. The spread presents a clear, though not risk-free, arbitrage opportunity. Traders can buy the "No" share on Kalshi at 7c and the "Yes" share on Polymarket at 79c, creating a synthetic position that profits if the final probability settles between those two points. The spread should narrow as the election approaches and more information becomes available.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on who will secure the Republican nomination for a special U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2026. The seat in question is Florida's Class III Senate seat, currently held by Senator Rick Scott, whose term expires in January 2027. A special election is required because Scott was elected Governor of Florida in 2010 and appointed to the Senate in 2018, creating a unique electoral timeline. The market resolves to 'Yes' for a specific candidate once that individual wins the Republican Party's nomination, which will be determined through a primary election likely held in August 2026. Interest in this market stems from Florida's status as the largest swing state, its shifting political demographics toward the Republican Party in recent cycles, and the national implications of controlling a Senate seat that could determine the chamber's majority. The race is expected to attract significant national attention and spending, making the nomination a high-stakes contest within the GOP.
Florida's Class III Senate seat has a distinctive modern history. It was held by Democrat Bill Nelson for 18 years until his defeat in the 2018 midterm elections. In that election, then-Governor Rick Scott, a Republican, narrowly defeated Nelson by approximately 10,000 votes, a margin of 0.2%. This victory was part of a broader Republican sweep of Florida's statewide offices that year. Scott's appointment to the seat in 2018 created the conditions for the 2026 special election. Historically, open Senate seats in Florida are highly competitive and expensive. The 2016 election for the state's other Senate seat, for instance, saw incumbent Marco Rubio spend over $50 million to secure re-election. The Republican primary process in Florida has evolved, with the party abolishing its runoff elections in 2002. This means the nominee is decided by a plurality in a single primary, which can advantage well-known candidates or those with a dedicated base in a crowded field.
The outcome of this Republican primary will have direct consequences for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. Republicans currently hold a slim majority, and every seat is critical for advancing or blocking legislative agendas. Florida's electoral votes are also essential in presidential elections, so a strong Senate candidate at the top of the ticket can influence down-ballot races and voter turnout. For Florida, the election will signal the direction of the state's Republican Party, testing whether it remains aligned with the Trump-era populist movement or shifts toward a different style of conservatism. The nominee's profile will also affect policy, particularly on issues central to Florida like immigration, insurance, and environmental management.
As of late 2024, the field for the 2026 Republican Senate primary is undeclared but actively forming behind the scenes. Potential candidates are fundraising, conducting polls, and securing commitments from consultants and staff. The Republican Party of Florida is focused on the 2024 presidential and Senate elections, but major donors are beginning to assess the 2026 landscape. Senator Rick Scott has not publicly endorsed a successor, and Governor Ron DeSantis has also remained silent on his preferences. The first major developments are expected in early to mid-2025, following the conclusion of the 2024 election cycle.
Florida's primary election for the 2026 cycle is currently scheduled for August 25, 2026. This is the date when Republican voters will select their nominee for the special Senate election.
Yes, Florida law does not prevent a sitting governor from running for federal office. Governor DeSantis could theoretically run for the Senate in 2026 without resigning his gubernatorial post, which ends in January 2027.
U.S. Senate seats are divided into three classes for staggered elections. Class III seats are up for election in years ending in 0, 2, 4, 6, and 8. Florida's Class III seat is currently held by Senator Rick Scott.
Potential Democratic candidates are speculative but could include Representative Darren Soto, former Representative Stephanie Murphy, or state officials. The Democratic field will largely take shape after the Republican nominee is known.
A special election is held to fill a vacancy outside the normal six-year term cycle. In this case, it is to fill the remainder of the term ending in January 2027, though the winner would need to run again in 2026 for the full term starting in 2027.
Yes, the last Senate special election in Florida was in 2018, following the resignation of Senator Bill Nelson. Then-Governor Rick Scott appointed himself to the seat, and a special election was held concurrently with the regular 2018 election.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
13 markets tracked
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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 93% | 4% |
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In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class III, special election, Florida Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from
If Ashley Moody wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class III (special election) Florida Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Ashley Moody wins the party's nomination.
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