GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Deportations in 2026?

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Deportations in 2026?

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5 markets tracked

Will the number of ICE removals be above 200000 in FY2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of ICE removals be above 200000 in FY2026?	Kalshi	99%
Will the number of ICE removals be above 300000 in FY2026?	Kalshi	95%
Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026?	Kalshi	89%
Will the number of ICE removals be above 500000 in FY2026?	Kalshi	30%
Will the number of ICE removals be above 600000 in FY2026?	Kalshi	14%

AI Analysis

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99%

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About This Event

FY2026 If the number of ICE removals is above X in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market will resolve once complete data is available for FY2026.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Deportations in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** FY2026

If the number of ICE removals is above X in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market will resolve once complete data is available for FY2026.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of ICE removals is above 600,000 in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market will resolve once complete data is available for FY2026."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of ICE removals be above 600000 in FY2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of ICE removals be above 500000 in FY2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of ICE removals be above 300000 in FY2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the number of ICE removals be above 200000 in FY2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Deportations in 2026?

FY2026 If the number of ICE removals is above X in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market will resolve once complete data is available for FY2026.

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KALSHI

Will the number of ICE removals be above 200000 in FY2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.0¢No 1.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the number of ICE removals be above 200000 in FY2026?

If the number of ICE removals is above 200,000 in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market will resolve once complete data is available for FY2026.

KALSHI

Will the number of ICE removals be above 300000 in FY2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.0¢No 5.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the number of ICE removals be above 300000 in FY2026?

If the number of ICE removals is above 300,000 in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market will resolve once complete data is available for FY2026.

KALSHI

Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.5¢No 11.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026?

If the number of ICE removals is above 400,000 in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market will resolve once complete data is available for FY2026.

KALSHI

Will the number of ICE removals be above 500000 in FY2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 29.5¢No 70.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the number of ICE removals be above 500000 in FY2026?

If the number of ICE removals is above 500,000 in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market will resolve once complete data is available for FY2026.

KALSHI

Will the number of ICE removals be above 600000 in FY2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the number of ICE removals be above 600000 in FY2026?

If the number of ICE removals is above 600,000 in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market will resolve once complete data is available for FY2026.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/OU8pBt" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Deportations in 2026?"></iframe>

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Will the number of ICE removals be above 200000 in FY2026?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Deportations in 2026?

Markets (5)

Will the number of ICE removals be above 200000 in FY2026?

Will the number of ICE removals be above 200000 in FY2026?

Will the number of ICE removals be above 300000 in FY2026?

Will the number of ICE removals be above 300000 in FY2026?

Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026?

Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026?

Will the number of ICE removals be above 500000 in FY2026?

Will the number of ICE removals be above 500000 in FY2026?

Will the number of ICE removals be above 600000 in FY2026?

Will the number of ICE removals be above 600000 in FY2026?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the number of ICE removals be above 200000 in FY2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Deportations in 2026?

Will the number of ICE removals be above 200000 in FY2026?

Will the number of ICE removals be above 200000 in FY2026?

Will the number of ICE removals be above 300000 in FY2026?

Will the number of ICE removals be above 300000 in FY2026?

Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026?

Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026?

Will the number of ICE removals be above 500000 in FY2026?

Will the number of ICE removals be above 500000 in FY2026?

Will the number of ICE removals be above 600000 in FY2026?

Will the number of ICE removals be above 600000 in FY2026?

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