NCAA Football: Arizona State 2026 Win Total
PM $5.3K
1
5
NCAA Football: Arizona State 2026 Win Total
PM $5.3K
1
5
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 4.5+ Wins at 75%.
Polymarket
- 4.5+ Wins75%
- 5.5+ Wins38%
- 6.5+ Wins21%
- 7.5+ Wins10%
- 8.5+ Wins9%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $5.3K
Reported volume · provider units
5
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team's regular season win total exceeds the listed number. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Only official regular-season games count. Conference championship games, bowl games, and College Football Playoff games do not count even if the NCAA recognizes them as such. Only played games resulting in a win will count toward this total. If the listed team plays fewer games than scheduled due to cancellation, weather, forfeit, or any other reason, only actual wins recorded count toward the total; canceled or unplayed games do not count as wins. If the 2026 NCAA Division 1 Football regular season is cancelled, postponed after December 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many wins the listed team recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official NCAA and conference records (https://www.ncaa.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
These markets ask whether Arizona State's regular season win total in the 2026 college football season will exceed a set threshold. The saved event includes five contracts, at thresholds of 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, and 8.5 wins [1]. Only official regular-season games count. Conference championship games, bowl games, and College Football Playoff games do not count, even if the NCAA recognizes them as such [1].
The rules also specify how unplayed games are handled. Only actual wins count, and canceled, weather-affected, or forfeited games do not add wins [1]. If the regular season is cancelled, or is postponed after December 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the win count cannot be determined, the market resolves "No" [1]. The primary resolution source is official NCAA and conference records, though "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-12-27T04:59:00Z [1]. That is a closing time in the contract rules, not an announced event date.
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed on 2026-10-19 at 00:00:05 UTC and retrieved at 01:18:50 UTC [1]. Prices are observations from that moment, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Within this event, the quoted Yes prices were 0.64 for more than 4.5 wins, 0.385 for more than 5.5, 0.19 for more than 6.5, 0.13 for more than 7.5, and 0.095 for more than 8.5 [1]. Each Yes and No pair sums to 1.00 in the saved data. The Yes price falls as the threshold rises, which is expected from the wording of the contracts, but the snapshot does not explain why prices are where they are.
The sample covers all five saved markets for this one event, and the record marks it as not partial [1]. It does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome. Do not treat these five contracts as a full field of possible win totals, and do not compare them with contracts on other platforms, which may use different wording or close times.
What remains uncertain
The evidence contains no game schedule, no results, and no trading volume. It also does not show how many traders are active or how much liquidity exists, so the prices cannot be read as depth or consensus. A snapshot from 2026-10-19 cannot show where prices stand later.
References
- Polymarket: NCAA Football: Arizona State 2026 Win Total. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a win total market for Arizona State's 2026 college football regular season. The event is listed on Polymarket and asks whether the team's regular season win total will exceed a given threshold. Each market in the event is a separate Yes or No question at a different threshold. The contract rules state that it resolves to Yes if the listed team's regular season win total exceeds the listed number, and to No otherwise [1]. The rules limit what counts as a win. Only official regular-season games count. Conference championship games, bowl games, and College Football Playoff games do not count, even if the NCAA recognizes them as postseason contests [1]. Only games that were played and resulted in a win count toward the total. If a game is canceled, forfeited, weather-affected, or otherwise not played, it does not add to the total [1]. The rules also include a separate condition for the season as a whole. If the 2026 NCAA Division I Football regular season is cancelled, or is postponed after December 26, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined how many wins the team recorded in that window, the market resolves to No [1]. The listed end time for the event is 2026-12-27T04:59:00Z, which is given in UTC [1]. Contract rules and the listed end time are not an announced event date, and the listed end time does not by itself show when games will be played. The primary resolution source named in the rules is official NCAA and conference records, with a consensus of credible reporting also allowed [1]. Resolution therefore depends on the win record in those sources, not on the price of any market. Arizona State is a member of the Football Bowl Subdivision, and a Wikipedia article describes the 2026 season's scheduled structure. That article states that the regular season was scheduled to begin on August 29 and end on December 12, with the postseason beginning on December 15 [2]. These are scheduled dates from a Wikipedia article and do not confirm the current status of any individual game. The article also notes that 2026 is the third season of the 12-team College Football Playoff system [2].
Historical Context
The 2026 NCAA Division I FBS football season is described on Wikipedia as the 157th season of college football in the United States, the 121st season organized by the NCAA, and the 51st season of the Football Bowl Subdivision, the highest level of competition [2]. The same article says the College Football Playoff format used in 2026 is the third season of its 12-team system [2]. Arizona State and Arizona have a football rivalry that is documented on Wikipedia, though the supplied background does not connect that rivalry to the win total contract [3].
Why It Matters
The contract measures how many official regular-season wins Arizona State records in 2026, compared against a set threshold. Because the market offers several thresholds, it allows a reader to compare how the contract structure changes as the required number of wins rises [1]. Only official regular-season wins count, so bowl results and playoff results do not affect the outcome [1]. The rules are specific about what does not count. Canceled or unplayed games do not add wins, which means a schedule disruption affects the count rather than being treated as a win [1]. The provider also states that a season-wide cancellation, or a postponement past the stated deadline without a determinable win count, resolves the contract to No [1]. The price snapshot shown alongside this article is a point-in-time observation from the provider. It is not an executable quote, and it should not be read as a verified probability of any outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as a win for this contract?
Only official regular-season games count toward the win total. Conference championship games, bowl games, and College Football Playoff games do not count [1]. Only games that were played and resulted in a win are included [1].
What happens if games are canceled or not played?
Only actual wins recorded count toward the total. Canceled or unplayed games do not count as wins [1].
When does the contract resolve to No regardless of wins?
The market resolves to No if the 2026 NCAA Division I Football regular season is cancelled, if it is postponed after December 26, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined how many wins the team recorded within that timeframe [1].
What sources decide the result?
The primary resolution source is official NCAA and conference records. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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