Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Name: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
End: 2028-11-08T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$780.13M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Vol

$780.13M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $711.01M

Kalshi

markets · $69.12M

Price Spread

0.7%avg

max 5.9%

Arbitrage

of 27 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $780.13M

91%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

57 markets tracked

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Arbitrage

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(27)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?ARB	48%	43%	6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?ARB	15%	18%	3%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2%	4%	2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	3%	3%	0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2%	3%	1%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2%	2%	0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2%	3%	1%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	0%	2%	1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	0%	1%	1%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	0%	1%	0%

Single-Platform Markets(30)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

48%

Top Probability

$780.13M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2028 Republican presidential nominee
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2028

If X wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Republican nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination. This market will close after Republican nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $780.13M
* **Total Liquidity:** $52.62M
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 14.83)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (43 mkts) vs Kalshi (41 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $9.65M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $4.73M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $15.80M
  DATA: [Yes: 48.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $4.62M
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 5.9% spread between platforms.

### 3. Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $14.09M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.55M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $8.73M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.19M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $9.76M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $2.96M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.1% spread between platforms.

### 6. Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $20.57M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.09M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $15.66M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $3.19M
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.6% spread between platforms.

### 8. Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $6.79M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $3.09M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $10.51M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $2.58M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $16.12M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.64M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $36.09M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.29M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $21.38M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.34M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $19.71M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $2.34M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $31.43M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.52M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $19.04M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.12M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $28.97M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.15M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $38.24M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $456.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $37.67M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $634.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $43.72M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.40M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $16.90M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.40M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $13.87M
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $4.67M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $17.95M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $2.03M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.3% spread between platforms.

### 23. Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $44.43M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.43M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $28.19M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $713.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $20.41M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.64M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $23.00M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $900.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $10.76M
  DATA: [Yes: 14.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.3% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $5.66M
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.7% spread between platforms.

### 28. Will Doug Burgum be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will John Kennedy be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $940
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will Chris Christie be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $16.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will Candace Owens be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $58.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will Jeff Bezos be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $104.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will Spencer Pratt be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $330.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 34. Will Lara Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $17.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 35. Will Pete Hegseth be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.37M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 36. Will Eric Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.51M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 37. Will Ivanka Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $2.32M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 38. Will Rand Paul be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.44M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 39. Will Tom Cotton be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $726.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 40. Will Nicki Minaj be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.43M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 41. Will Thomas Massie be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $3.47M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 42. Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $8.75M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 43. Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $32.99M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 44. Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $19.74M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 45. Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $28.59M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 46. Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $6.21M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 47. Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $10.59M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 48. Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $8.94M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 49. Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $9.38M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 50. Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $889.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 51. Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $547.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 52. Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $880.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 53. Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $753.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 54. Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $1.75M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 55. Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $518.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 56. Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $802.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 57. Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $243.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIElections

2028 Republican presidential nominee

In 2028 If X wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Republican nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination. This market will close after Republican nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

Volume$69.12M

Markets41

POLYMARKETPolitics

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Volume$711.01M

Markets43

57 of 57

Sort:

Arbitrage Opportunity: 5.9% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average45.5%

Polymarket+5.9%

48.4%

Kalshi

42.5%

Difference:5.9% Arbitrage!

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 48.4¢No 51.6¢

KKalshi

Yes 42.5¢No 57.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

If J.D. Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Republican nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

Arbitrage Opportunity: 2.7% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average16.1%

Polymarket

14.8%

Kalshi+2.7%

17.5%

Difference:2.7% Arbitrage!

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 14.8¢No 85.3¢

KKalshi

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

If Marco Rubio wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Republican nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average3.2%

Polymarket

2.5%

Kalshi+1.6%

4.0%

Difference:1.6%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Ron DeSantis be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

If Ron DeSantis wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Republican nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average2.9%

Polymarket+0.4%

3.0%

Kalshi

2.7%

Difference:0.4%

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢

KKalshi

Yes 2.7¢No 97.4¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Tucker Carlson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

If Tucker Carlson wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Republican nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average2.3%

Polymarket

2.1%

Kalshi+0.5%

2.6%

Difference:0.5%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 2.1¢No 98.0¢

KKalshi

Yes 2.6¢No 97.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

If Donald J. Trump wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Republican nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

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Next Market Closes

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Nov 08, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC

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Average Yes Price

3¢

Polymarket

3¢

Kalshi

6¢ price gap

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/OUn5Um" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Republican Presidential Nominee 2028"></iframe>

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Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

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Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

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2028 Republican presidential nominee

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Markets (27)

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Ron DeSantis be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Tucker Carlson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

2028 Republican presidential nominee

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Ron DeSantis be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Tucker Carlson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

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