Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18)

Total Volume

$19.52K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18)

Vol

$19.52K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $19.52K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $19.52K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?	Kalshi	96%
Will there be more than 160 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?	Kalshi	93%
Will there be more than 170 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?	Kalshi	87%
Will there be more than 180 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?	Kalshi	72%
Will there be more than 190 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?	Kalshi	51%
Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?	Kalshi	34%
Will there be more than 210 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?	Kalshi	17%
Will there be more than 220 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?	Kalshi	10%
Will there be more than 230 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will there be more than 250 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?	Kalshi	2%
Will there be more than 240 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$19.52K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

10/12 - 10/18 If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above X from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 10/12 - 10/18

If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above X from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 250 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. The market will resolv"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $19.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be more than 250 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 18, 2027): Vol $539
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be more than 240 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 18, 2027): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be more than 230 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 18, 2027): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be more than 220 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 18, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be more than 210 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will there be more than 190 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 18, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will there be more than 180 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 18, 2027): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will there be more than 170 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 18, 2027): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 86.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will there be more than 160 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 18, 2027): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 18, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18)

Volume$19.52K

Markets11

11 of 11

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KALSHI

Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHITech

Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 150 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. The market will resolv

KALSHI

Will there be more than 160 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHITech

Will there be more than 160 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 160 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. The market will resolv

KALSHI

Will there be more than 170 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.5¢No 13.5¢

KALSHITech

Will there be more than 170 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 170 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. The market will resolv

KALSHI

Will there be more than 180 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 71.5¢No 28.5¢

KALSHITech

Will there be more than 180 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 180 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. The market will resolv

KALSHI

Will there be more than 190 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.5¢No 49.5¢

KALSHITech

Will there be more than 190 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 190 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. The market will resolv

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42¢

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Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18)

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18)

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Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18)

Markets (11)

Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

Will there be more than 160 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

Will there be more than 160 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

Will there be more than 170 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

Will there be more than 170 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

Will there be more than 180 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

Will there be more than 180 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

Will there be more than 190 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

Will there be more than 190 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18)

Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

Will there be more than 160 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

Will there be more than 160 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

Will there be more than 170 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

Will there be more than 170 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

Will there be more than 180 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

Will there be more than 180 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

Will there be more than 190 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

Will there be more than 190 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

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