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Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?

Name: Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?
End: 2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$352.93K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?

Vol

$352.93K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $352.93K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $352.93K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Jingchao Xiong receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Jingchao Xiong receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?	Poly	82%
Will David Ganezer receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?	Poly	17%
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?	Poly	1%
Will Saikat Chakrabarti receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?	Poly	0%
Will Cole Bettles receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?	Poly	0%
Will Darren Helton receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?	Poly	0%
Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

82%

Top Probability

$352.93K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, inclu

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, July 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 2, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, inclu

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $352.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $31.4K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 11.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Saikat Chakrabarti receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $15.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Cole Bettles receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $19.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Darren Helton receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $41.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $205.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will David Ganezer receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $22.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jingchao Xiong receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $39.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 82.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $11.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics