This prediction market addresses whether the United States Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear a case involving the Third Amendment to the U.S. Constitution before January 20, 2029. The Third Amendment, which prohibits the quartering of soldiers in private homes without the owner's consent during peacetime, is one of the least litigated provisions in the Bill of Rights. For a case to trigger a 'Yes' resolution, the Supreme Court must grant a writ of certiorari, and the case must meet one of three specific criteria: the petition must explicitly raise a Third Amendment claim, the lower court decision must have addressed such a claim on its merits, or the Court's order granting certiorari must specify the Third Amendment as an issue. The market's timeframe coincides with the potential end of a second term for former President Donald Trump, should he win the 2024 election, adding a political dimension to the legal question. Interest in this market stems from the extreme rarity of Third Amendment jurisprudence, with no Supreme Court case ever directly interpreting it, making the grant of certiorari a significant constitutional event. Recent discussions about the expansion of government power, particularly in contexts involving national security or emergency declarations, have led some legal scholars and civil liberties advocates to speculate whether novel Third Amendment claims could emerge, potentially reaching the nation's highest court.

Historical Context

The Third Amendment was ratified in 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights, a direct response to the British Quartering Acts of 1765 and 1774, which forced American colonists to house British soldiers. This grievance was cited in the Declaration of Independence. For over two centuries, the amendment has seen virtually no litigation at the Supreme Court level. It has never been the central basis for a Supreme Court decision. The most significant judicial reference came in the 1982 case of Engblom v. Carey, where the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit held that the Third Amendment was incorporated against the states via the Fourteenth Amendment. This case involved National Guard members striking against their state employer. In 2013, a Nevada family filed a federal lawsuit, Mitchell v. City of Henderson, claiming local police officers effectively 'quartered' themselves in their home during a standoff. The district court dismissed the claim, and the Ninth Circuit affirmed in 2015 without directly ruling on the Third Amendment argument, highlighting the high barrier such claims face. This historical dormancy makes any Supreme Court grant of certiorari a landmark event in constitutional law.

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