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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

Name: Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
End: 2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$33.80K

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

Vol

$33.80K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $33.80K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $33.80K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?	Poly	44%
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?	Poly	26%
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?	Poly	8%
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?	Poly	8%
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?	Poly	6%
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be at least 5m square kilometers?	Poly	2%
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.8m & 5m square kilometers?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

44%

Top Probability

$33.80K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of squar

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 1, 2026 (78 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of squar

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve imme"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $33.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.78)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $24.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be at least 5m square kilometers?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.8m & 5m square kilometers?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $901
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate