Market snapshot: Sep 8, 2026, 9:02 PM UTC. This snapshot is older than six hours. Check the provider for current prices and availability.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

Name: Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
End: 2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$76.60K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

Vol

$76.60K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $76.60K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $76.60K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?	Poly	58%
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?	Poly	29%
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?	Poly	2%
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?	Poly	1%
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?	Poly	1%
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.8m & 5m square kilometers?	Poly	1%
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be at least 5m square kilometers?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

58%

Top Probability

$76.60K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of squar

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 1, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of squar

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve imme"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $76.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.6K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 10.03)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $33.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $7.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 57.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $8.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.8m & 5m square kilometers?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be at least 5m square kilometers?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $15.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate