GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomics

How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?

Name: How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?
End: 2027-01-27T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$9.85K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?

Vol

$9.85K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $9.85K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.85K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will three people dissent the January Fed decision?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will three people dissent the January Fed decision?	Poly	30%
Will two people dissent the January Fed decision?	Poly	21%
Will no one dissent the January Fed decision?	Poly	20%
Will one person dissent the January Fed decision?	Poly	20%
Will four or more people dissent the January Fed decision?	Poly	15%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

30%

Top Probability

$9.85K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for January 26-27, 2027. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on January 27, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the January Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 27, 2027 (145 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for January 26-27, 2027. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on January 27, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the January Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for January 26-27, 2027. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on January 27, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the number of dissenti"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $14.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.71)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will no one dissent the January Fed decision?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 27, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will one person dissent the January Fed decision?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 27, 2027): Vol $508
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will two people dissent the January Fed decision?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 27, 2027): Vol $338
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will three people dissent the January Fed decision?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 27, 2027): Vol $7.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will four or more people dissent the January Fed decision?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 27, 2027): Vol $498
  DATA: [Yes: 15.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomics