How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?
PM $23.1K
1
5
How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?
PM $23.1K
1
5
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 0 at 57%.
Polymarket
- 057%
- 117.5%
- 313%
- 25.7%
- 4+4.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $23.1K
Reported volume · provider units
5
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for January 26-27, 2027. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on January 27, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the January Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks how many members will dissent at the January Federal Open Market Committee meeting. According to the rules, the market "will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the January Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision" [1]. The resolution source is the FOMC statement for the meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 [1]. The rules also say that "a consensus of credible reporting will also be used" [1], so the resolution basis includes more than the official statement alone.
Each binary market is a separate contract with its own wording. The five contracts ask about no dissent, one dissent, two dissents, three dissents, and four or more dissents [1]. The listed end time for all five is 2027-01-28T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules state that the market "may resolve as soon as the FOMC's statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued" [1], so the listed end time is a close time from the contract data, not a confirmed announcement of when the result will be known.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z, and the saved data was retrieved at 2026-10-20T08:13:26.280Z [1]. These prices describe that observation only. They are not current quotes.
The quoted Yes prices were 0.57 for no dissent, 0.175 for three dissents, 0.165 for one dissent, 0.078 for four or more, and 0.062 for two [1]. The highest quoted Yes price was for no dissent. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The five Yes prices sum to 1.05 in this snapshot. Because they come from separate contracts observed at one moment, that total does not by itself identify a trading opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The coverage record shows 5 total markets, all 5 included, and no partial sample [1]. The provider's sample warning also states that including all saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The snapshot therefore cannot tell you whether other outcomes exist, and it should not be read as the complete field.
The data does not explain why any price moved, how many traders hold each view, or how much liquidity the markets have. Volume is not included in this analysis. Prices from other platforms should be compared only after checking that their wording, resolution source, and close times match.
References
- Polymarket: How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event asking how many members will dissent at the January 2027 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The provider's rules state that the January meeting is scheduled for January 26-27, 2027, with the policy decision set for 2:00 PM Eastern Time on January 27 and the Fed Chair's press conference following at around 2:30 PM ET [1]. These dates come from the contract rules and calendar reference, not from a reported event that has already occurred. The event is organized as a set of separate yes-or-no contracts about dissent counts. The saved listing includes five contracts: no one dissenting, one person dissenting, two people dissenting, three people dissenting, and four or more people dissenting [1]. Each contract has its own Yes and No outcomes, so a trader is pricing one specific count rather than choosing among several outcomes within a single contract. The event's listed end time is 2027-01-28 at 04:59 UTC, and the provider reports its status as active [1]. That end time is a provider setting. It should not be read as confirmation of when any result will be published, because the rules allow resolution at a different point. The counting method is tied to the FOMC's own record. The market resolves according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the January meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision [1]. The resolution source named in the rules is the FOMC's statement issued after that meeting, with the official meeting calendar cited as the reference for the schedule [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow, verifiable count: how many dissenting votes are recorded at the January 2027 FOMC meeting on the Fed Funds Rate decision [1]. Because the outcome is tied to recorded votes rather than to a general view about policy direction, the rules define the event in fairly specific terms. The rules also say the market may resolve as soon as the FOMC's statement for the January meeting, with relevant data, is issued [1]. They add that a consensus of credible reporting will also be used [1]. Anyone reading a contract should therefore check both the official statement and how the rules treat reporting when the two might differ in timing or detail. The dissent count is the variable being priced. Trading activity in each contract reflects what market participants are willing to pay for a Yes or No outcome at a given moment. It is not a measure of how many people are watching or how easily positions can be bought or sold.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-20 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does this market actually measure?
It measures the number of dissenting votes recorded at the January 2027 FOMC meeting on the Fed Funds Rate decision [1]. The five contracts split that count into none, one, two, three, and four or more dissenters [1].
Which source decides the result?
The rules name the FOMC's statement issued after the January 26-27, 2027 meeting as the resolution source [1]. The rules also say a consensus of credible reporting will be used [1].
When is the meeting scheduled?
The rules state the meeting is scheduled for January 26-27, 2027, with the policy decision announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on January 27 [1]. The rules describe this as the official calendar schedule, so it is not a report of a completed event [1].
Could the market resolve before the listed end time?
Yes. The rules say the market may resolve as soon as the FOMC statement for the January meeting is issued with relevant data [1]. The listed end time is 2027-01-28 at 04:59 UTC [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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